572 
FXUS62 KFFC 011922
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Dry and mostly clear conditions across the area are expected to
continue into the rest of this afternoon and evening. Isolated 
gusty conditions can be expected with sustained winds generally 
less than 10 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph over the next few hours. 
High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 
50s across the far north with 60s further south, about 10 degrees 
below average. Temperatures overnight tonight are expected to be 
just slightly above freezing across the northeastern portions of 
the area and in the upper 30s lower 40s across the rest of the 
area. 

Late overnight tonight into early Tuesday, chances for showers will 
increase as a strong shortwave moves approaches the area and a 
surface low quickly develops off the Georgia/South Carolina coast by 
Tuesday morning. This system will bring the highest chances for rain 
to the southern tier overnight tonight and spread northward 
before daybreak. As precipitation moves into northern portions of 
the area mainly rain is expected, but there is the potential for a
mix of rain and snow for a few hours in the early morning, 
specifically in portions of far northeast Georgia but is 
especially possible in the higher elevations. Temperatures across 
the higher elevations are expected to hover just above freezing. 
Surface temperatures are expected to be above freezing across the
rest of the north and should rise fairly quickly so no impacts 
are expected. Overall, rainfall amounts look to be about an inch 
or less across the far southeast, with less than a quarter to a 
half an inch elsewhere. Precipitation is expected to end fairly 
quickly as the deeper moisture from the system pulls out of the 
area by mid-day. As a result, high temperatures on Tuesday are 
expected to be in the upper 50s in the mountains with 60s further 
south, about 5 to 13 degrees below average. The rest of Tuesday 
and Tuesday night is expected to be dry.

Reaves

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure system will dominate the 
weather pattern with mostly clear skies and warming temps getting 
the area back to near normal highs and lows for early April. 

Further west, a shortwave will be making its way across the Southern 
Rockies into the Southern Plains by Wednesday night. An initial low-
pressure system will be associated with it, which has some severe 
potential to it as it moves through western Oklahoma and into the 
Lower Mississippi valley on Thursday. However, shortly after 
cyclogenesis, the shortwave looks to become disconnected from the 
surface low-pressure system, pushing out ahead of the subtropical 
cyclone and supporting a line of storms out ahead of the low-
pressure system. This line of showers and possible thunderstorms 
could move into the area as early as Thursday evening, and will most 
likely carry a slight chance of thunderstorms through Fri 
morning/afternoon.

The remnants of this storm system should place a weaker frontal 
boundary across the southern portion of the forecast area, along 
which further showers and thunderstorms could be focused on 
Saturday. By Saturday night, a surface high pressure system from a 
quickly pivoting upper-level ridge, will move off the mid-Atlantic 
coastline and will drive southerly Gulf flow completely into the 
region and act to wash out any remaining frontal boundary along with 
the return of higher PWATs into the area. By Sunday, the area will 
return to southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of another shortwave 
system that will be moving across the Midwest, acting to further 
expand storm coverage and intensity.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions present through the rest of the day today with some
high level clouds. Some gusty conditions around 15-19kts will
continue over the next few hours. Expecting ovc deck around 
050-080 around 06Z for metro taf sites and around 04-06Z for 
MCN/CSG. Included vcsh and a prob30 for -shra and MVFR cigs across
the metro taf sites around 07-11Z and began -RA at MCN/CSG around
06Z. Expecting some IFR/MVFR cigs towards CSG/MCN, but mostly 
VFR/MVFR at atl metro sites. Expecting precip to end at all taf 
sites around 10-11Z. Winds are expected to be less than 7 kts and
should shift to the N around 18-19Z and then to the NW around 
20-21Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on ceilings.
Medium to high confidence on all other elements. 

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          37  59  39  71 /  60  40   0   0 
Atlanta         41  61  42  71 /  50  20   0   0 
Blairsville     34  56  34  68 /  20  20   5   0 
Cartersville    39  62  38  72 /  30  10   0   0 
Columbus        44  66  43  74 /  60  10   0   0 
Gainesville     38  58  40  70 /  40  20   0   0 
Macon           41  62  40  72 /  80  30   0   0 
Rome            40  62  38  71 /  20  10   0   0 
Peachtree City  40  63  39  73 /  50  20   0   0 
Vidalia         44  63  43  73 / 100  70   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Reaves