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262 FXUS62 KMLB 310852 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 452 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight...Ridge near the area will begin to move out over the Atlc Basin, leaving veering winds to a S/SW component and warm afternoon temps in the L-M80s. An afternoon seabreeze will move in along the coast, providing some cooler air there. Mentionable showers will be confined to a small area of the Treasure Coast, with a late shower possible near the Ocala National Forest ascd with the late apchg cold front this evening. The cold front will begin to push into N central FL tonight. Isentropic lift and mid-level impulses in the flow aloft will result in isolated to scattered showers after sunset, primarily north and west of I-4. Will word sct coverage south to Orange Co., then isolated or lower chcs over Osceola and Brevard Co's to Lake Okee overnight. Considerable cloudiness will develop areawide by daybreak Mon. An unsettled WX pattern to start the work week as the srn branch of the H30-H20 jet. Mid range guidance carries this feature thru to Monday with a nearly saturated H100-H70 airmass working its way down the central peninsula behind the frontal wind...winds W/SW ahead of the front, bcmg NE behind it. By early Tue mrng, mid range guidance dvlps a small coupled jet pattern over the NE GOMex that will induce a strong sfc low to form off the FL/GA coast that will lift NE off the Carolina Coast. This low will provide the torque necessary to crank the stalled frontal boundary into the FL Straits Tue night into Wed, bringing an end to this latest round of organized precip. High PoP gradient on Mon as frontal moisture sags into the area from the north...80pct acrs Volusia/N Lake Co...decreasing to arnd 40pct south of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando Metroplex. Precip mainly in the form of light to moderate rain as nrly winds thru the H100-H85 lyr shift to SW thru the H85-H50 lyr...a classic setup for a stratiform precip event. Sct shras (30-50pct) Mon night as the storm system dvlps over the NE GOMex and pushes acrs the FL Panhandle. H100-H85 winds veer to E/SE. On Tue, the storm system will deepen rapidly off the GA/FL border, pulling the cold front south of Jupiter Inlet/Lake-O by sunset...daytime PoPs 60pct from Indian River/Osceola Co. northward and 50pct to the south...bcmg less than 10pct overnight as NW post frontal flow pulls dry continental air into central FL. Wide temp range Mon/Tue with the front stalling overhead. Prefrontal max temps Mon in the U70s/L80s acrs the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region, decreasing to the M/U60s north of I-4...Mon night mins in the L/M60s south of I-4, decreasing to the M/U50s north of I-4. Tue max temps in the L/M70s along and north of I-4 except U60s along the Volusia Co. coast...M/U70s south of I-4...Tue night temps noticeably cooler as the front pushes in to south FL...mins dropping into the U40s/L50s west of I-95 and L/M 50s along the immediate coast. Wed-Sat... Dry, seasonable WX pattern thru late week before a weakening cold front pushes into the region and brings the next (low) chance for precip. The front may approach central FL by late Fri, but indications are the bulk of its energy will lift north of the area, leaving central FL with little more than the "scraps" of its trailing edge. Gradual warming trend to occur as sfc/low lvl winds veer from N/NE on Wed, to E/SE on Thu, then S/SE Fri/Sat. Max temps Wed in the L/M70s, warming to the U70s/L80s Fri/Sat aftns. Min temps Wed night M50s/U50s interior/I-4 Corridor and L/M60s Space/Treasure Coasts...L/M60s Fri/Sat nights. && .AVIATION...VFR conds on average through 01/02Z. Clouds will increase and lower overnight Sun night with an better chc of pcpn over the northern sites and ocnl MVFR conds tonight FM DAB-SFB- LEE-ISM. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight...Surface high pressure will move seaward today with a cold front moving into the northern waters this evening. SSW winds north of Sebastian Inlet and S/SSE southward with speeds remaining AOB 15 kts. Winds will become onshore with seabreeze development early this aftn. An isolated shower chance continues, but mainly over the Gulf Stream. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream. Deteriorating boating conditions over the Volusia waters tonight will likely require a headline early Monday. Mon-Mon Night...Poor conds as a cold front sags into north FL and stalls just south of the I-4 Corridor. Vrbl winds acrs the lcl Atlc. North of Sebastian Inlet, a gentle to moderate N/NE breeze at daybreak, bcmg a moderate to fresh E/NE breeze by mid aftn, veering to due E by midnight, then subsiding to a gentle to moderate S/SE breeze in the predawn hrs Tue mrng. South of Sebastian Inlet, a gentle N/NE breeze early in the day, bcmg a gentle to moderate S/SE breeze by mid aftn, then a gentle to moderate S/SW breeze aft midnight. Seas building thru the day. North of Cape Canaveral, seas 4-6FT at daybreak, building to 6-8FT by late aftn, up to 9FT in the Gulf Stream by late evng. South of the Cape, seas 3-5FT at daybreak, building to 4-6FT by late aftn, then 5-7FT aft midnight...up to 8FT in the Gulf Stream. Sct/nmrs shras and isold tsras. Tue-Tue Night...Shifting winds as a new storm system dvlps along the frontal boundary near the mouth of the St. Johns River and lifts up the Carolina Coast, cranking the cold front into the FL Straits while doing so. A gentle to moderate S/SW breeze at daybreak, bcmg a moderate to fresh Wrly breeze by midday, then a moderate to fresh N/NW breeze by late aftn, diminishing to a gentle to moderate Nrly breeze by midnight. Seas 5-7FT areawide at daybreak, up to 8FT in the Gulf Stream. Sct/nmrs shras thru the day, decreasing to a slgt chc in the Gulf Stream aft sunset before ending overnight. Wed-Thu...High pres building acrs the Deep South and into the W Atlc will result in a gradual windshift thru midweek. A gentle to moderate N/NE breeze at daybreak Wed, bcmg a gentle to moderate E/NE breeze by sunset Wed, bcmg a gentle to moderate Erly breeze early Thu mrng, a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze early Thu aftn, finally a gentle to moderate SE breeze late Thu evng. Seas 4-6FT areawide...up to 7FT in the Gulf Stream. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 61 63 60 / 10 40 80 50 MCO 86 64 71 61 / 0 20 70 50 MLB 83 62 73 63 / 10 20 40 40 VRB 82 60 77 64 / 10 10 40 30 LEE 85 59 65 58 / 10 40 80 50 SFB 85 62 67 59 / 10 30 80 50 ORL 85 64 70 60 / 0 30 70 50 FPR 82 60 78 65 / 10 10 40 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pendergrast LONG TERM....Bragaw