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240 
FXUS63 KIND 310720
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
320 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS and NEAR TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

Low pressure system that brought Saturday's mixed bag of 
precipitation has moved off to the east to the lower Great lakes 
and NY/PA region. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front/trough 
through eastern Lower MI and will be followed by high pressure 
building into the area. Temperatures will be below average today 
with a chilly morning Monday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...

Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019

Area will be under the influence of northern branch of the jet 
stream that extends from western areas of Canada into the Upper 
Great Lakes. High pressure will build into the region today bring 
dry weather and cool temperatures that will struggle to reach 40 
degrees across much of central Indiana. High pressure will spread 
across much of the region from the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley
into the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, mostly clear skies with cool
temperatures will round out the end of March.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Dry weather expected for much of this period, as surface high 
pressure drifts through the area early next week. Model data 
indicate a short wave trough may move through the Tennessee Valley 
by Tuesday. At this point, operational and ensemble data suggest 
precipitation potential with this wave will be minimal locally, but 
will keep an eye on the trends going forward.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday 
may be a bit on the warm side. May nudge the numbers down a shade in 
that period. The guidance highs on Monday also look too warm, so 
will cut about 3-5 degrees off of the guidance highs in that period. 
The remainder of the periods look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

One significant low pressure system is expected during the long
term period, between strong surface high pressure systems. This
will bring dry weather through mid week, with showers possible
from late Wednesday night into Friday. Thunderstorms would be
possible as well, mainly Thursday night as the cold front
approaches. Model disagreements on timing of the system suggest a
blend approach will be best and made only minor adjustment to the
builder output.

Temperatures through the period look to be relatively mild and
near normal for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 310600Z TAF Update/... 
Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Snow has shifted east late this evening with ceilings lifting as 
drier air builds in. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure 
builds in. Gusty winds will likely linger well through Sunday as the 
surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. Expect northwest winds to 
gust to near 25kts at times into the afternoon. May see scattered 
diurnal cu develop Sunday afternoon in the cold advection regime 
with skies clearing towards sunset and winds finally diminishing.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DM
NEAR TERM...DM
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan