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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Product Timestamp: 2019-03-31 07:20 UTC
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240 FXUS63 KIND 310720 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 320 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS and NEAR TERM Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Low pressure system that brought Saturday's mixed bag of precipitation has moved off to the east to the lower Great lakes and NY/PA region. Surface analysis shows a weak cold front/trough through eastern Lower MI and will be followed by high pressure building into the area. Temperatures will be below average today with a chilly morning Monday. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Area will be under the influence of northern branch of the jet stream that extends from western areas of Canada into the Upper Great Lakes. High pressure will build into the region today bring dry weather and cool temperatures that will struggle to reach 40 degrees across much of central Indiana. High pressure will spread across much of the region from the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley into the Upper Great Lakes. Thus, mostly clear skies with cool temperatures will round out the end of March. && .SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Dry weather expected for much of this period, as surface high pressure drifts through the area early next week. Model data indicate a short wave trough may move through the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday. At this point, operational and ensemble data suggest precipitation potential with this wave will be minimal locally, but will keep an eye on the trends going forward. Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday may be a bit on the warm side. May nudge the numbers down a shade in that period. The guidance highs on Monday also look too warm, so will cut about 3-5 degrees off of the guidance highs in that period. The remainder of the periods look OK for now. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Issued at 313 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 One significant low pressure system is expected during the long term period, between strong surface high pressure systems. This will bring dry weather through mid week, with showers possible from late Wednesday night into Friday. Thunderstorms would be possible as well, mainly Thursday night as the cold front approaches. Model disagreements on timing of the system suggest a blend approach will be best and made only minor adjustment to the builder output. Temperatures through the period look to be relatively mild and near normal for the time of year. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 310600Z TAF Update/... Issued at 1131 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period. Snow has shifted east late this evening with ceilings lifting as drier air builds in. Skies will clear overnight as high pressure builds in. Gusty winds will likely linger well through Sunday as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. Expect northwest winds to gust to near 25kts at times into the afternoon. May see scattered diurnal cu develop Sunday afternoon in the cold advection regime with skies clearing towards sunset and winds finally diminishing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DM NEAR TERM...DM SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...Ryan