160 
FXUS64 KLCH 301752
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1252 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local 88Ds show shower coverage beginning to expand across much of
the forecast area in response to daytime heating and an advancing
pre-frontal trof...have initialized all terminals with VCSH. High-
res guidance indicates best shot at showers comes just ahead of/in
association with the frontal passage later this afternoon (early 
evening for the sern terminals)...this will also be the time of 
best thunder chances with enhanced lift likely. Post-fropa, expect
MVFR ceilings in the short-term while elevated nrly winds...gusts
occasionally exceeding 20 knots...will likely linger through the 
period.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1101 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019/ 

UPDATE...

As of 11 AM, the surface cold front that will push through the
region extends from Little Rock southwestward through Tyler to 
Austin. A pre-frontal surface boundary can also be noted moving
southeastward approximately 100 miles ahead of the front.
Scattered showers have begun to develop in advance of this
prefrontal boundary and are expected to continue through the early
afternoon. More significant showers and possibly some
thunderstorms are expected after mid to late afternoon, when the
combination of surface heating, boundary layer mixing, and forcing
from the cold front will help parcels overcome the warm nose noted
from 850-700 hPa in the 12Z KLCH sounding. Overall, PoPs look
representative with mainly minor changes made to the timing.

Along and immediately behind the front, surface stations have been
recording winds 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. These post-
frontal elevated winds are expected to persist as front progresses
southeastward through the day. The inherited forecast did not have
winds increasing until late tonight and into the day on Sunday.
Therefore, have increased the winds behind the front later today
and tonight with this forecast update.

Other than minor tweaks to get close to observations, the rest of
the forecast elements remain on track at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019/ 

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR ceilings will rise through the morning into 
prevailing VFR. A few showers will dot the area later this 
morning, increasing through the afternoon with a few 
thunderstorms possible with the approach and passage of a cold 
front. Rains will taper off with as the boundary moves off to the
east, with strong and gusty north winds developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
A few clouds this morning but these will be increasing through the
day. A bit of patchy fog mainly down along the coast but this will
be gone quickly after sunrise. Southerly winds as a cold front 
that is now moving through southern Oklahoma will move into 
northern Texas around sunrise and build southward through the day.
The front is expected to enter the lakes region of southeast 
Texas this afternoon late and exit the south central Louisiana 
coast during the evening hours. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany the front this evening with winds swinging around 
to the northwest. Winds are expected to become brisk in the 
coastal waters and a Small Craft Advisory has been posted during 
the overnight hours Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours.

Todays highs look to be around 80 degrees with temperatures
falling behind the front. Temperatures tomorrow morning will be in
the lower 40s which will be around a 15 degree drop from this
morning. Clouds to hold on Sunday afternoon temperatures in the 
upper 50s. High pressure will settle in the south as a 1034 high 
spreads out across central and the eastern US. High pressure will 
move into the eastern seaboard towards Thursday as the next system 
drops down into Oklahoma... this system will bring another rounds 
of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  43  58  36 /  70  60   0   0 
LCH  79  49  58  42 /  40  70  20   0 
LFT  81  49  57  43 /  20  60  30  10 
BPT  78  48  58  43 /  60  50  20   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ435-455-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday 
     for GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472.

&&

$$


AVIATION...04