National Weather Service Raw Text Product

101 
FXHW60 PHFO 280649
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
849 PM HST Wed Mar 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will remain over the main Hawaiian Islands
overnight. A weak front will move over Kauai tomorrow. The front 
will move across Oahu by tomorrow evening, then stall and 
dissipate over Maui County on Friday. The surface ridge will 
linger near the islands through early next week. A trough aloft 
will remain north of the area through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As of 8 PM, satellite loops show a frontal cloud band 150 miles 
northwest of Kauai moving southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The band is
about 200 miles wide and contains showery broken low clouds.
Convergence in the weak southerly flow ahead of the front is
producing showers over the Big Island of Hawaii and offshore to
the northeast of Oahu. Some of these showers have been heavy. Radars
show little or no rainfall elsewhere around the islands. The
showers northeast of Oahu are expected to remain offshore. The
showers on the Big Island will gradually subside through the
evening.

The front will move slowly southeast across Kauai tomorrow. It
will reach Oahu by tomorrow evening and Maui County on Friday.
The front will produce cloudy skies and windward showers over 
mainly windward areas of the islands. The front will stall and 
dissipate over Maui County by tomorrow night.

A surface ridge will rebuild near the islands as the front
dissipated. This will maintain gentle, variable winds around the
islands through early next week. A surface trough is forecast to 
develop east of the Big Island by Friday night, then move west 
over the Big Island during the weekend. Moisture along the surface
trough and instability from a trough aloft may keep the Big 
Island wet, especially on Sunday. Over the rest of the islands,
the light winds will allow daytime sea breezes and nighttime land
breezes to prevail. The sea breezes will produce afternoon clouds
and showers while the land breezes will bring clearing skies at 
night.

Another front will approach from the northwest early next week,
but the front may dissipate before reaching the islands. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds will continue across the islands tonight, with land 
breezes developing in most areas. A weakening front will push 
southward into the western islands Thursday and into the central 
islands Thursday night. Ahead of the front, daytime sea breezes 
are expected, while behind the front light to moderate northerly 
winds are expected to develop. 

Daytime convective showers should end over the next hour or two
over the Big Island, and the AIRMET for mountain obscuration will
be cancelled once conditions improve. Elsewhere, no AIRMETs are
expected overnight. Showers will develop once again over the
interior and mountain areas on Thursday due to daytime heating, 
as well as increase along windward sections of Kauai in 
association with the front. Some MVFR conditions will be possible
with these showers and AIRMETs for mountain obscuration may be
needed once again.

&&

.MARINE...
A front 120 nm northwest of Kauai this evening, will continue to 
press southeastward, reaching Kauai around mid- morning Thursday, 
and dissipate when it reaches the Big Island on Friday. A light 
to moderate northerly breeze follows in behind the front as weak 
high pressure settles over the area for the weekend. Another front
is slated to reach the western islands about Monday of next week.
So, the winds will be veering to southerly late in the weekend. 

A northwest swell has reached Kauai, and at 6 pm HST, the Hanalei
buoy was reporting a swell height of 7 feet and a period of 15 
seconds, which is close to advisory level. Buoy 51001, located 
some 180 nm northwest of Kauai, is also reporting a 7 foot swell 
and a period of 15 seconds. The swell is forecast to peak in the
next couple of hours at buoy 51001. Any longer duration and 
higher on the swell height would likely lead to a high surf
advisory. 

The surf for the weekend and early next week looks active for the
north and west facing shores. A large reinforcing north northwest
swell is expected to reach Kauai early Friday and spread down the
island chain. The swell is slated to peak late Friday afternoon 
and early evening with a swell height of 8 feet and a period of 13
seconds. Translating, the surf is likely to reach advisory level 
for mainly the north facing shores. Another reinforcing swell, 
slightly smaller at 6 feet and 17 seconds, and from the west- 
northwest, will be arriving Friday night. It is expected to peak 
late Saturday afternoon, followed by a slow lowering through 
Sunday night. This swell will then be reinforced by a large west- 
northwest swell on Monday, peaking at 9 feet and 14 seconds Monday
afternoon and evening. A High Surf Advisory is likely for the 
north and west facing shore for most of the islands with this 
swell.

Small background surf will continue along south facing shores 
today. We are expecting a slight bump in the surf along the south
facing shores between Thursday and Friday. So far, there is no
sign of this swell from buoy 51002, located 135 nm southwest of 
the Big Island. Surf along east facing shores will remain small 
through early next week due to the light winds and lack of a 
easterly fetch.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
DISCUSSION...Donaldson
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Lau