113 
FXUS61 KBGM 280617
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
217 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifting offshore will allow southerly winds and 
temperatures to increase today. A frontal boundary will press 
into the area late today and stall out in our vicinity through 
Friday night, along with chances of showers. The boundary will 
wobble north Saturday with warm temperatures, and it will then 
pass through as a showery cold front Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM update...
Just a minor update to up hourly temperatures and lower
dewpoints. Rest of forecast in good shape with just high clouds
coming in. 

340 PM Update...High pressure is now sliding off to the east. 
This will bring a light return southerly flow (5-10 mph) for
this evening. Skies will remain clear this evening. Temperatures
will slowly fall back into the 30s later this evening across 
the area.

Mostly clear tonight, with some increase in clouds late. 
Increasing southerly winds up to 15-20 mph over the hilltops, 
but still mainly under 10 mph in the valleys. Not as cool, with 
lows only in the mid-20s to lower 30s.

Increasing mid and high level clouds through the day Thursday
across the area (becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon...especially
north and west). Quick flow aloft will allow the first of 
several shortwaves aloft, to run out ahead of an approaching 
front from mid afternoon onward. Resulting attempts at showers 
will have a lot of dry air in the lower levels to fight, but at 
least scattered light rain showers will have a chance of making 
it into the Central Southern Tier-Finger Lakes-NY Thruway 
corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Rainfall amounts 
will be very light; under a tenth of an inch through sunset.
 
Warming trend continues, with the southerly winds boosting 
temperatures into the lower and mid 50s for highs Thursday. 
Lower elevations of the northern Finger Lakes to Syracuse areas 
could even manage upper 50s due to downsloping winds. Sustained 
winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph or so, will become 
common during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A colder upper level trough just to the north across southern 
Canada and an upper level ridge well to our south across the 
Southeast US will allow a surface frontal boundary to become 
nearly stationary across our forecast area during this timeframe.

There are still minor differences in the model guidance on the 
exact position of this front, and the timing of several weak 
waves moving along it. 

At this time, best indications are that the front moves slowly
through from NW to SE late Thursday evening, then stalls near 
the NY/PA border Thursday night and Friday morning, with higher 
chance to low end likely PoPs for rain showers along the frontal
boundary. PoPs will be lower further south Thursday night, then
decreasing across our northern zones by Friday morning, with the
boundary sinking south (near the Twin Tiers). Then, the front
slowly lifts back north later in the day Friday...again taking
the best chances for rain showers with it. Rainfall amounts are
trending a little higher, especially across the Twin Tiers in
the late Thursday night - Friday period; where up to a third of
an inch may fall...amounts taper across the north, with the lowest
rain amounts expected from Monticello-Scranton south and east. 

Mild temperatures for Thursday night; holding mainly in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures are still somewhat 
uncertain for Friday, and there will likely be a rather large 
thermal gradient over our area with the front bisecting the 
region. Right now, current guidance has temperatures holding 
between 45-50 from Penn Yan--Cortland--Norwich and Cooperstown 
north. Further south expect 50-55 across the Twin Tiers of 
NY/PA...then upper 50s and lower 60s for the valleys in 
northeast PA and Sullivan county NY. Winds turn southwest 
Thursday night around 10 mph, then becoming westerly or even 
west-northwest Friday, less than 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night...Surface low pressure over the midwest will push 
a warm front across the region. Will continue with 
likely/categorical POPs over much of central New York and high 
chance from the southern tier south through northeast 
Pennsylvania. Total rainfall looks to be a quarter of an inch or
less so this is a high POP low QPF forecast, as forcing along 
the boundary is fairly weak. 

Saturday/Saturday night...On Saturday the latest NAM would 
indicate region is well into the warm sector with mainly dry 
conditions until late day. The Canadian tends to agree but the 
GFS/ECMWF is much wetter. Since models continue to show
significant differences will continue to indicate wet 
north/west and possibly mainly dry from the local area and 
points east/south. It will be mild will highs ranging from the 
upper 50s to mid 60s. Saturday night the surface cold front 
moves through the area with showers expected area wide. Well 
after midnight the rain could mix with wet snow over the higher
elevations of the western/northern forecast area. Any snow 
accumulations would be just a few tenths. 

Sunday...Upper level trough moves into the area with showers
most likely east of I81. Through mid morning a rain/snow mix 
will be possible in the higher elevations. Highs on Sunday will 
range from 40 to 45 degrees across central New York and in the 
mid/upper 40s in northeast Pennsylvania. 

Sunday night...Surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley
leading to mainly dry conditions although cold westerly flow
could bring some scattered snow/rain showers southeast of Lake
Ontario. Lows will range in the lower to middle 20s. 

Monday through Wednesday...A dry period as high pressure moves
from the Ohio Valley to off the east coast. Temperatures will
moderate during the period with highs on Wednesday from the 
upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will persist for most if not all of this TAF period, but 
dry high pressure will let go of the area to allow southerly
winds, lowering ceilings, and eventually a few showers. -SHRA
should reach at least KSYR-KRME and perhaps KITH by 06Z Friday 
soon to be followed by the other terminals. For early this
morning, a south-southwest jet of 35-40 knots will pose low
level wind shear conditions versus much lighter surface winds
for KRME-KSYR-KITH-KELM. Not long after dawn, surface winds will
increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts, which will eliminate
the LLWS. However, a window of LLWS is expected for KAVP after 
00Z Saturday. For now sky is FEW-SCT 20-25 kft. Increasing 
moisture will allow ceilings to develop and lower this
afternoon, but any initial showers will be widely scattered and
non-restrictive. Eventually, ceilings will lower into MVFR for
at least the NY terminals 01Z-04Z Saturday onward.

Outlook... 

Late Thursday night through Saturday night...Intermittent 
mostly MVFR restrictions as chances of showers occur along a
stalled frontal boundary wobbling in our vicinity.

Sunday through early Sunday night...Restrictions in rain 
showers, perhaps mixing with snow showers before ending.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Likely return to VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Initial relative humidity recovery to 45-70 percent by dawn, 
will dip back down to 30-45 percent through midday before 
increasing clouds and moisture halts that. Southerly winds will 
also increase, reaching sustained 10-15 mph with higher gusts. 
So there will be a sensitive window of time today in terms of 
somewhat low humidity and increased winds, before showers arrive
late today through Friday. Indeed a few brush fires have 
already occurred in the last couple of days as fine dead fuels 
have dried out, which is typical for any dry period this time of
year. Be sure to heed any local or state burn bans currently in
effect. Another potential period of warming and drying may 
occur early- to-mid next week.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP