215 
FXUS65 KBOU 250924
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
324 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2019

The back edge of an upper level trough is slowly moving across nrn 
Co early this morning and should move east of nern CO by midday. 
There will still be a shower threat over the far nern plains this 
morning with a few light snow showers in the nrm mtns as well.

By this aftn the trough should be east of the area with no precip 
expected.  In addition a pacific fnt will move across the plains 
with gusty northwest winds behind it.  As for highs, readings will 
stay mainly in the 50's over nern CO as 850-700 mb temps don't 
change much.

For tonight it will be dry with cool temps.  Appears some stratus 
will develop over the ecntrl plains late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2019

For Tuesday, the upper ridge will be firmly in place over the region 
with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. This pattern will 
continue into Wednesday with increasing SW flow in the mid and upper 
levels. Some breezy conditions will be possible over the eastern 
plains by Wednesday afternoon and evening, however fire weather 
concerns will remain low with speeds staying light and fuels still 
on the wetter side. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to 
reach into the 70s. By 12z Thursday a closed low is just off the 
Pacific NW coast with another possible low just to the NE in Canada. 
At this time models are showing the low center stay stationary while 
ejecting the elongated trough across the Great Basin by late 
Thursday along with the polar jet. At the surface models indicate a 
cold front pushing in from the NE Thursday afternoon increasing 
favorable upslope conditions for the Front Range and Foothills. 
Moisture levels and QG ascent/lift provided by the jet will bring 
precipitation to the mountains and plains around midnight Thursday 
into Friday morning. The upper low that was over Canada is shown 
wrapping up into the jet as it pulls the system south bringing 
prolonged chances of rain and snow to the region through Friday. It 
appears as the secondary low will bring much cooler air that will 
help to lower the freezing level possibly down to 5500 ft by late 
Friday turning rain over to snow. Many details still need to be 
worked out as the system moves onshore and evolves, however I feel 
confident enough to increase pope for late Thursday and through 
Friday for rain and snow across the region. Along with the pattern 
change, temperatures will drop back into the 40s by Friday with 
Thursday still seeing mild temperatures in the low to mid 60s. 

By the weekend the system is projected to be well over Kansas by mid 
-day Saturday leaving CO in NW flow aloft. Some lingering snow in
 the mountains will be possible into Sunday morning with
 temperatures returning to normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2019

An area of stratus and fog was hovering just to the north and 
northwest of DIA early this morning, as there is a weak Denver 
cyclone near the airport. The HRRR keeps the stratus and fog to 
the northwest and north of DIA thru mid morning before it burns 
off. Satellite the past hour has begun to show a southeast 
movement, so there is a chc of LIFR ceilings and visibilities
affecting DIA in the next hour or so.

For later today and tonight expect VFR conditions.  Winds will 
become more northwest by late morning and then shift to a more north 
to northeast direction by early aftn.  By OOZ winds will become more 
easterly and then gradually become drainage by mid to late evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...RPK