220 
FXUS64 KFWD 212019
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019


.DISCUSSION...
The upcoming weekend will feature various intervals of rain and 
thunderstorm chances as a few weak upper-level shortwave troughs 
traverse the region, and a cold front pushes through late Sunday. 
The chances for widespread severe weather appear low, though a few
isolated severe thunderstorms are not out of the question. By 
next week, upper-level ridging will return, bringing about another
mostly dry work week. More details below, but before we press on:
the threat for severe weather on both Saturday and Sunday is very
"conditional". What we mean by "conditional" is that the
likelihood of thunderstorm development is low on Saturday and
Sunday afternoons, but should thunderstorms develop, there is a 
respectable chance that they become strong to severe.

North flow this afternoon will give way to south flow by daybreak
Friday. This south flow will come courtesy surface cyclogenesis
along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This surface low
will move little during the first 12 hours of its life as the 
strongest height falls approach from the west. This should keep 
rain and thunderstorm chances confined to eastern New Mexico and 
far west Texas. Into Saturday, a negatively-tilted shortwave 
trough will pivot through the Central Plains, allowing the 
aforementioned surface low to lift northeast. Large Q-vector 
convergence across North and Central Texas, indicative of large 
synoptic-scale ascent, will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the warm sector in the wee morning hours Saturday.
The morning convection should occur before more significant 
destabilization can occur, which will limit the overall severe 
potential. Rain will mostly be light to moderate at times, with 
area-averaged accumulations expected to be on the order of one- 
quarter to one-half inch (a few spots perhaps seeing close to one
inch).

If we are to see some severe convection this weekend, our first
shot will come on Saturday afternoon/evening. A dryline will 
approach our western counties from the west. Forecast soundings 
along the dryline show fairly weak capping and SBCAPE of around 
1,000 J/kg. The main problem for convective development will be 
the general lack of upper-level support. In fact, the GFS/ECMWF 
indicate subtle height rises by 24/0000Z (Saturday evening). Given
the modest instability and deep-layer shear of around 40 knots 
however, if any thunderstorms were to develop, a few could quickly
become severe, with splitting supercells likely to be the primary
storm mode given the straight hodograph profiles. It should be 
stressed though, that the severe weather threat is highly 
conditional on whether or not thunderstorms even develop near the 
dryline in the first place. The greatest threat for this 
marginal/conditional severe weather potential will be generally 
along and west of U.S. Route 281. The main threat would be 
marginally severe hail.

A similar situation is expected to exist Sunday afternoon as a
cold front moves through our county warning area. Upper-level
support will be limited, but rich low-level moisture profiles,
SBCAPE of around 1,000-1,500 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear in excess
of 40 knots suggests that a conditional threat for severe weather
may exist. The greatest threat for this severe weather potential
will be near and southeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan
Area, but again, this threat is highly conditional. The main
severe weather threats would be marginally severe hail and gusty
winds in excess of 50 MPH.

Following the cold front passage, longwave ridging should build
over the interior CONUS, leading to quiet weather for the week of
March 25. The next chance for impactful weather will likely not
arrive until at least next Friday, which is beyond the forecast
period.

Godwin

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with generally
clear skies. Some high clouds will spread across the region from
the west tonight. Otherwise we will keep an eye on an axis of
moisture that will result in some MVFR CIGs to the west of the TAF
sites Friday. At this time it looks like it should stay to the
west through the end of the TAF period. West to northwest winds of
5 to 10 knots are expected through sunset, with winds becoming
light and variable overnight. South winds at 5-10 knots are
expected Friday. TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  75  53  66  58 /   0   0  50  70  50 
Waco                45  75  53  67  58 /   0   0  40  60  40 
Paris               42  70  48  61  54 /   0   0  20  60  60 
Denton              43  74  52  66  58 /   0   0  50  70  50 
McKinney            43  73  51  64  57 /   0   0  40  60  50 
Dallas              48  76  53  66  59 /   0   0  40  60  50 
Terrell             44  74  50  65  57 /   0   0  30  60  50 
Corsicana           48  75  52  65  57 /   0   0  30  60  50 
Temple              47  76  54  68  59 /   0   0  30  60  40 
Mineral Wells       45  75  53  68  57 /   0   0  60  70  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

37/92