989 
FXUS61 KCLE 211120
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
720 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over Indiana this morning will move east across
northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania today. A low pressure
system over the Carolinas will move up the East Coast and
extending a trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes region
on Friday. High pressure will build in over the Great Lakes
region on Saturday and remain over the area through Sunday. Low
pressure over the Central Plains on Sunday will move east and
reach the lower Great Lakes on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front continues east of eastern Indiana, while scattered
showers continue across the area. These showers will diminish
over the next couple of hours until the front clears the area by
this afternoon. 

Previous Discussion...
A cold front over Indiana this morning will continue east into
northern Ohio and NW PA. Ahead of the cold front, rain over the
area was being supported by a wave of energy as an upper trough
remains over the eastern Great Lakes. Rain will shift east with
the approaching cold front and rain coverage will be scattered
at best by this afternoon. Behind the cold front late this
afternoon into much of tonight, there will be a lull in the
precipitation as some brief upper ridging moves into the lower
Great Lakes. Temperatures for today will stay in the 40s until
the frontal passage and lows behind the front will be in the mid
30s. 

The Friday forecast is intriguing to say the least. A surface
low will move up the East Coast and strengthen as it reaches the
New England states by Friday afternoon. This low will extend a
trough of low pressure over the region on Friday morning, as
another shortwave trough enters the eastern Great Lakes. With
cold air surging into the region with this upper trough, snow
will develop for Friday morning with some lake enhancement
likely with an open (albeit cold) Lake Erie and northwest flow
over the region. Late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon
could be especially interesting as there is deep saturation
through the DGZ and high inversion heights, allowing for a
period of moderate snow in the typical snow belt areas. Given 
warmer temperatures earlier in the week, surface temps remain 
warm and so accumulating snow will be limited to the highest 
hills of the NW PA and NE OH snow belt. However, parts of NW PA
could get 1 to 3 inches of snow by late Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow will linger for a period of time Friday night 
across the snow belt in the wake of a shortwave. However, much drier 
air and falling inversion heights after 06Z should bring an end to 
most of the snow. Otherwise, high pressure builds east across the 
region Saturday through Sunday with dry conditions and moderating 
temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, 
but will reach the upper 40s to low 50s by Sunday. Models are coming 
to better agreement with low pressure moving towards the area from 
the Plains Sunday night. Have opted for mid to high range chance 
pops Sunday overnight, with the surface low directly over the area 
by the end of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will quickly move east out of the area Monday as a cold 
front quickly pushes south across the Great Lakes into the Ohio 
valley by Monday. Lingering precip Monday evening should end through 
the overnight as cooler high pressure builds south across the 
region. Dry conditions are then expected through Wednesday.  Highs 
Monday will be in the low/mid 40s, but will only reach the mid/upper 
30s to near 40 Tuesday. As the high move southeast of the area 
Wednesday, temps should start to rebound back into the mid/upper
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Conditions are beginning to deteriorate further this morning as
a cold front approaches the area. Ahead of the front, scattered
rain showers continue to move over and around the terminals.
Ceilings are VFR in the far east, but are falling to MVFR as the
rain begins to clear ahead of the front and then IFR immediately
ahead of the front. Behind the front, low stratus will build in
over the region and linger through the day with a mixed bag of
MVFR and IFR. The front will continue east through the afternoon
and winds will shift from the south to the northwest with the 
frontal passage. Conditions should be dry tonight behind the
front. A surface trough will enter the Great Lakes on Friday
morning as a deepening low moves up the East Coast. This trough
and northwest flow will allow for rain and snow to develop over
portions of the snow belt and snow may move into the KERI area
by daybreak on Friday, likely causing non-VFR conditions.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible on Friday with rain or 
snow showers, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
The main story on the lake is a strong cold front that will push 
southeast across the lake tonight into Friday, with winds becoming 
north/northwest and increasing to 20-30 kts during the day on 
Friday. High pressure will regain control across the area Friday 
night through Sunday with winds fairly light and generally out of 
the west to southwest across the lake. Another cold front will push 
southeast across the lake Sunday night into Monday, with winds 
becoming northerly. High pressure regains control over the lakes 
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Greenawalt