560 
FXUS64 KMOB 210956
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
456 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Surface high pressure 
over the southern plains builds in producing a northwesterly wind
flow in the wake of the departing cold front. Winds aloft also 
veer to the northwest as a mid level ridge begins to build in. 
Winds will be gusty at times today as surface heating allows some 
of the stronger low level flow aloft to mix down to the surface. 
Post frontal mid and high level cloud cover currently over more 
inland portions of the area will shift east of the area this 
morning providing for another day of widespread blue skies. High 
temperatures today climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s again. 
Another shortwave trough traveling southeastward along the eastern
flank of the ridge aloft will drive another weak cold front 
southward across the region tonight. This boundary will have 
little impact on sensible weather and produce little in the way of
cloud cover. Overnight lows tonight drop into the upper 30s and 
low 40s west of the I-65 corridor and low to mid 40s east with 
upper 40s to low 50s possible along the immediate coast. /08 

.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...A surface ridge shifts 
east to over the Eastern Seaboard in response. General north to 
northeasterly flow in the low levels becomes southeast to south 
over the forecast area Sunday night, opening the forecast area for
the return of Gulf moisture. With the passing upper ridge, 
temperatures ease upward through the weekend. Highs Friday (upper 
60s to low 70s) rise from a bit below seasonal norms to above (mid
to upper 70s) for Saturday. Lows Friday and Saturday night remain
below seasonal. Lows generally in the low to mid 40s expected 
Friday night, mid to upper 40s inland and around 50 along the 
coast as warming southerly flow off the Gulf returns. /16 

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...In the Long Term, timing 
of the return of precipitation to the forecast area remains the 
biggest challenge. Guidance is advertising a series of mid level 
shortwaves moving from over the Plains into a developing upper 
trough stretching south along the Eastern Seaboard. Timing and 
strength of the shortwave's passage among the guidance has come 
into better agreement from yesterday, with the energy moving 
across the Southeast Monday through Tuesday. A cold front 
associated with this weakly organized system moves south across 
the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain showers 
and a few thunderstorms develop ahead of the front Monday into 
Tuesday night, with the precipitation moving east of the area 
early Tuesday as the upper energy moves east. Ahead of the 
frontal passage, highs Sunday and Monday in the mid to upper 70s 
expected. Upper 60s to around 70 are expected for Tuesday and 
Wednesday as cooler air moves over the area. Temperatures are 
expected to fall into the 50s Sunday and Monday nights, the 40s 
for Tuesday night. 
/16 

&&

.MARINE...A moderate to strong offshore flow following in the wake of 
a cold front moving southeastward across the Gulf will gradually 
diminish. A light to moderate westerly to northerly flow develops 
later today and persists through Friday. An onshore flow returns 
Saturday afternoon and strengthens Monday as a cold front approaches.
A moderate to strong offshore flow follows in the wake of the cold 
front Monday night./08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  43  72  45  74  49  75  56 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Pensacola   70  46  69  50  72  51  72  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Destin      68  50  68  53  71  52  70  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Evergreen   71  42  71  41  76  45  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Waynesboro  69  40  71  41  75  45  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10 
Camden      69  40  69  42  74  45  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10 
Crestview   72  40  72  40  76  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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