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939 FXUS63 KTOP 210902 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 402 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 Today through Tonight, an upper level trough was moving onshore across the CA coast and will dig east-southeast across the Southwestern US Tonight. A down stream H5 ridge axis located across the high Plains will shift east and amplify through tonight across the Plains. A surface ridge of high pressure across western NE will build southeast across eastern KS Tonight. Solar insolation should counter balance the weak low-level CAA, along with the PBL increasing to depth up to 890MB, so high temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across the CWA with light northwest winds. Light winds and clear skies will allow overnight lows to dip down into the lower to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 Friday, the upper level trough across the Southwestern US will lift northeast into the central and southern high Plains by 00Z SAT. An upper level trough west of the Hudson Bay region of Canada will dig south-southeast across the eastern Great Lakes into New England and the mid Atlantic states late Friday night. The resulting low-level CAA will build a surface ridge axis southward across the mid MS River Valley. Easterly winds across the CWA will begin to veer more to the southeast during the late afternoon hours. Stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough and richer Gulf moisture advection northward across western TX into western KS and eastern CO will result in showers and thunderstorms developing across the central and southern high Plains. The showers will remain well west of the CWA as drier air parcels around the mid MS River Valley ridge axis advects west and northwest across eastern KS. High clouds will increase through the day. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s. Friday night through Saturday night, the upper level trough across the central and southern high Plains will lift northeast across KS on Saturday and should rotate northeast across eastern NE and western IA by 12Z SUN. A surface low across southwest KS will deepen through Saturday afternoon and southerly winds will advect richer residual gulf northward across central and eastern KS late Friday night and through the day on Saturday. The combination of isentropic lift and DCVA ahead the approaching upper level trough axis will provide for periods of showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms. MUCAPES look to be under 400 J/KG and widespread deep moist convection southward into southern TX will prevent mid level lapse rates from steepening. Therefore, any thunderstorms on Saturday should only produced isolated lightning strikes as the only hazard. The stronger ascent ahead of the H5 trough will shift northeast of the CWA during the overnight hours and the steadier showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms will shift northeast of the CWA after 6Z SUN. Highs on Saturday will only reach the 50s Sunday through Monday, there may be a few showers during the morning hours as the filling upper level trough across eastern NE western MO shifts east across IA into central MO. The next upstream upper level trough is much weaker on the 00Z ECMWF run. There may be enough ascent ahead of the H5 trough for scattered light showers on Monday. Highs on Sunday will reach the lower to mid 60s with some afternoon insolation. Stronger low-level CAA will cool highs into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday. Monday night through Thursday, the upper trough over the mid MS River Valley will dig southeast into the southeast US as a more amplified H5 trough develops across New England. A broad upper level ridge across the western US will move into the Plains on Wednesday, while another upper trough moves onshore across the western US. The western H5 trough will move towards the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, providing a chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as richer gulf moisture advects northward ahead of the upper trough. Highs on Tuesday will only reach the mid to upper 50s. Look for a warm up by weeks end with lower 70s possible on Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019 VFR conditions expected. Despite clear skies and high near- surface humidity values, mixing behind the recent front's passage should be enough to keep nocturnal BR formation in check over the next 10 hours. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Gargan AVIATION...65