563 
FXUS63 KFGF 151459
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
959 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Adjustment to the today forecast confined to matching current sky
and temps, more clouds and higher temps, this morning. Will see
the flurries move east and temps rise into the upper 20s to low 
30s, mainly in the south. 

UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Area of flurries progressing southward through the RRV. Still
can't rule out a dusting, but for now felt comfortable messaging
as flurries. Made adjustments to sky/wx to reflect current trends,
otherwise things are on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

A weak shortwave trough passing within northwest flow aloft is
bring a few flurries to parts of our northern CWA, and this
activity will continue to spread south across our CWA through the
day. Can't rule out an isolated dusting, but non-measurable will 
be favored as moisture is generally limited within profiles and 
forcing brief. High temps will be below normal today in the mid 
20s to near 30, but this really isn't that far off of seasonal 
normal (32-35 range). Low temps tonight will be much cooler 
(single digits). Another shortwave trough moves through central 
ND and may bring better chances for measurable precip by daybreak
Saturday in our west (still light with minimal impacts). 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Much quieter weather prevails through the extended period. Snow 
chances are in the forecast on Saturday, mainly for the southwestern 
portions of the CWA where light snow is possible. Temperatures will 
be near normal with highs in the 30s on Saturday with near 40 
degrees by Thursday. Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday 
with embedded shortwaves traversing the region on Saturday and once 
more on Tuesday. Upper ridging takes shape late Tuesday into 
Wednesday with efficient WAA into the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Very light snow showers/flurries moving across eastern ND and
northwest MN with quick moving wave, should move out of region by
this afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail with daytime winds 
west-northwest 12-15kt (gusts occasionally 18-22kt). Winds should
decrease below 12kt this evening (roughly 01-03Z). Can't rule out
drops to MVFR today, but confidence wasn't high enough to 
introduce to TAFs at this time as there is only a mixed signal in
guidance. Better chance for MVFR at KDVL after 10Z as another 
system moves through Central ND and may produce light snow (or a 
rain/snow mix) Saturday morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR