180 
FXUS63 KOAX 112326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Ingredients for significant rain event are coming together across 
the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. 

IR/WV imagery this afternoon showing a strong circulation hanging
off the southwest coast of CA with sub-tropical moisture 
streaming across the southern Plains. AT the surface 2 distinct 
thermal boundaries oriented east-west were identified. One from 
southern MN to the northern NE panhandle. The other from central 
MO to the OK panhandle. 

Models are in quite good agreement that the southwest CONUS 
system will deepen significantly as it lift northeastward Tuesday
night. Impressive influx of southern moisture is progged with up 
max mixing ratios anywhere from 9-11 g/kg and PW values around 
1.3" pushing into the southern CWA. Increasing DPVA eventually 
induces surface cyclogenesis over eastern CO by 12z Wednesday with
precip breaking out within warm sector ahead of the system. Areal
coverage and intensity will increase as the main upper system 
continues lifting northeast. Medium range models seem to be in 
reasonable agreement suggesting heavy rainfall occurring late 
Wednesday morning with 3 hour amounts approaching and inch in 
some locations. A dry slot moving in from the south will allow for
a brief reprieve from rainfall Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday 
evening the surface low is progged to lift across the CWA with 
backside precip filtering into wrn/cntrl NE. Rain intensity will 
increase again and persists through Thursday morning. Activity 
should be slowly dissipating then through the afternoon from west 
to east. 

Given warming temperatures allowing for good snowmelt combined with 
excessive rainfall and ice jamming along rivers, potential for 
flooding is high. Therefore have decided to extend the Flood Watch
out until Thursday afternoon. 

Also of note...models show stout surface winds over the CWA Thursday 
afternoon and night. Will opt to let mid shift decide how to 
approach placing any possible headline needed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

As longwave trof exits to the east dry weather is expected heading 
into this weekend. However with northwest flow prevailing aloft area 
meteograms are indicating slightly cooler conditions will be 
returning to the region Friday. There is a small chance for light
snow on Saturday with the cold frontal passage. Shortwave ridging
though will result in a warming trend early next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

MVFR cigs will begin to move into the area from the southwest 
tonight, eventually reaching the TAF sites by early Tuesday
morning. Cig heights will gradually drop to IFR levels through the
late morning hours. Light rain is also expected across all of the
TAF sites beginning after 10Z in KLNK and after 12Z at KOFK and 
KOMA. Heavier showers are expected to taper off by Tuesday
afternoon, however areas of light rain and drizzle will continue
to be possible through the early evening.  

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening for 
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KG