664 
FXUS63 KFGF 082120
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

The main change with this update is the north-northwestward nudge
of the main precipitation area for Saturday/Saturday night's
storm system. An upper level trough will move out of the 4-corners
region tonight and into the plains states tomorrow. Snow and
perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle will begin in SE ND late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. The snow will be heavy at times,
with 6-12 inches possible across southeastern ND and into much of
NW MN. The 12Z NAM was further to the NW than other runs...pushing
the frontogenesis as far west as Grand Forks to Roseau. Other
models are more to the east. However, 6" of snow looks quite 
reasonable for the Grand Forks area, and so have expanded warning
northwestward a bit. Given the frontogenesis...over 12" will be
possible somewhere in the warning area...but that won't be exactly
known until we get closer to the event. NAM bufr has 25 kts
gusting to 35 kts at GFK and FAR on Saturday night...raising the
concern for blowing snow a little higher than before. Have bumped
up winds slightly to account for this. If the NAM solution
continues to look true...the winds could linger deep into Sunday
morning. So, generally, from southeast of a line from Lake of the
Woods to SE ND...6-12" of snow is likely...with 12-18" possible in
a small area. More details will be known down the road.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) 
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

Models in general agreement this run and will go with a blended 
solution at this time. Focus is on a system expected to impact the 
forecast area around mid week.

For Sunday into Sunday night...The main upper low moves into the 
Great Lakes with a fairly tight surface pressure gradient remaining 
over the the valley and east...with snow tapering off ahead of 
surface high pressure settling over the region.

By Monday into early Tuesday...surface high pressure remains in 
control across the region. The upper ridge is forecast to rebound 
with thickness values indicating above freezing temperatures over 
the area ahead of the next system.

For Tuesday through Friday...another system is forecast to develop 
across the central Plains. At this point...the general trend is for 
a Colorado low to develop late Tuesday and track northeastward 
across eastern Nebraska into Wisconsin through the period. Abundant 
moisture will accompany the system as the Gulf opens up and a strong 
low level jet transports moisture into the upper Mississippi valley. 
Considering the warming indicated ahead of the system...some 
freezing precipitation cannot be ruled out...mainly across the 
Minnesota zones...but will keep out of the grids for now until 
confidence increases. As the system continues to move toward the 
western Great Lakes and departs...will see cooler temps as 
precipitation tapers off to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

Latest TAFs reflect battle between IFR and MVFR cigs/vis today.
All and all will see a slight improvement today but conditions
deteriorate tonight, especially late. Not included in any TAFs is
the possibility for FZDZ late tonight. Best chance appears to be
from FAR to BJI and south between 06Z and 12Z. Otherwise, snow
moves in shortly thereafter and will likely be heavy at times at
FAR and BJI...with the potential for very poor conditions
extending to GFK and TVF depending the track of the low. All
locations will see some snow, but the worst of the five TAF sites
will be FAR and BJI.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM CST Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday 
     for NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST Saturday to 1 PM CDT 
     Sunday for NDZ008-014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM CST Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday 
     for MNZ003-029-030-040.

     Winter Storm Warning from noon CST Saturday to 1 PM CDT Sunday 
     for MNZ002-015>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST Saturday to 1 PM CDT 
     Sunday for MNZ001-004>009-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Knutsvig