896 
FXUS63 KICT 080959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

Today:
Some patchy fog remains possible this morning as a large sfc high
covering the East Coast teams with weak low pressure positioned
primarily over UT & Western CO to induce weak N/NE flow to become
easterly as today progresses. The weak, generally easterly lower-
deck flow will keep all areas stratified today to put a crimp on
temps in most areas this afternoon; the only exception being SE KS
due to a warmer start.

Tonight-Sat Morning:
The chances for rain really ramp up late tonight as the afore-
mentoned low pressure center strengthens as it crosses the CO/KS
border around mid-night, then strengthens further as it ventures
into most of KS early Sat morning. This would induce lower-deck
flow to shift toward the SE, then S by around daybreak. This
evolving pattern is due to an upper-deck trof that'll rapidly
intensify as it surges across Western KS late tonight/early Sat
morning. As the attendant "Pacific" Front surges into KS late
tonight/early Sat morning, it'll encounter an obviously moist
airmass to cause rain to rapidly break out across the KS
Neighborhood. There is sufficient lift to 'spark' a few
thunderstorms across SE KS but the thunderstorms would be neither
strong nor severe as instability is virtually non-existent. Such a
rapidly progressive pattern (The sharp upper-deck trof will take
on a negative tilt as it surges across the MS Valley Sat
afternoon.) all rains should clear SE KS by early Sat afternoon.

Remainder Of The Weekend:
All will be quiet across the immediate KS Neighborhood as the
departing, negatively-tilted upper-deck trof leaves the Great
Plains under a strong zonal regime.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

Mon:
A mid-upper ridge will gradually amplify as it gets forced E over
the Great Plains by a deep mid-upper cyclone that'll dig slowly SE
over Baja CA. The increasingly dominant ridge dictated lowering
PoPs across all areas with rain limited primarily to the western
half of Central KS Mon afternoon.

Mon Night-Wed:
We'll get soaked during these periods as the above-mentioned upper
deck low surges E toward, then across, the Central & Southern
Plains from Mon night-Wed morning. With such a powerful system,
moderate-heavy rains are certain, especially from Tue morning till
late Tue night. We'll need to be alert for flooding during these
periods. This 2nd upper-deck trof will undergo rapid cyclogenesis
over primarily Nebraska on Wed. This should drive most of the
rains from the KICT Neighborhood by Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

MVFR conditions will reign over the region tonight. IFR conditions
with fog and scattered light rain will be likely over much of the
region tonight. There is a chance for some LIFR conditions during
the day Friday but IFR conditions are expected to be the main 
concern for all terminals for Friday and Friday night. These IFR 
conditions are expected to remain through the TAF period. 

Metzger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019

There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  44  55  28 /   0  80  30   0 
Hutchinson      46  40  52  26 /   0  70  20   0 
Newton          46  41  52  27 /   0  80  40   0 
ElDorado        48  42  55  28 /   0  90  50   0 
Winfield-KWLD   52  46  58  29 /   0  90  40   0 
Russell         39  35  45  24 /   0  60  10   0 
Great Bend      42  36  47  24 /   0  50  10   0 
Salina          43  38  48  25 /   0  70  30   0 
McPherson       45  40  50  26 /   0  70  20   0 
Coffeyville     54  47  64  31 /   0 100  80   0 
Chanute         51  44  60  29 /   0 100  90   0 
Iola            49  43  59  29 /   0 100  90   0 
Parsons-KPPF    53  46  63  30 /   0 100  90   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...EPS