371 
FGUS73 KGLD 071247
ESFGLD

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MST THU MARCH 7 2019

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook use the term Goodland Service Area to refer to major rivers located
- In Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties of Colorado
- In Dundy,  Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties of Nebraska
- In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are delineated
    by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham, and Norton counties.
These river systems include
- The North and South Forks of the Republican River
- The Republican River
- Beaver, Sappa, and Prairie Dog Creeks 
- South and North Forks of the Solomon River 
- The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers 

This outlook is valid from March 7, 2019 through March 21, 2019.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced 
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, 
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued. 
Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and 
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then 
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of 
flood events in the Goodland service area result from short periods 
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive 
precipitation. 

Since the beginning of the year, the area has received near to 
slightly above normal precipitation. The area that has received the 
most precipitation has been along and south of Interstate 70. Within 
the last week, a winter storm produced widespread snow across the 
entire the Hydrologic Service Area(HSA). 

Soil moisture conditions are currently running near to above normal 
over much of the area with the highest soil moisture content along 
and east of the Colorado border. At the present time, there is 
widespread snow cover across the entire HSA. Since the last outlook, 
drought conditions have improved. The current drought monitor index 
(www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) now only shows that the extreme western 
portion of the east central Colorado counties have abnormally dry 
conditions.

NOAA'S Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) 
forecasts much below normal temperatures and near to slightly below 
normal normal precipitation for the period March 14 through March 20.

Reservoir levels currently range between 23 to 60 percent of 
conservation pool capacities at Keith Sebelius Lake in northwest 
Kansas, Hugh Butler Lake, Enders and Swanson Reservoirs in southwest 
Nebraska. The Harry Strunk Reservoir which feeds Medicine Creek in 
southwest Nebraska is currently at 93 percent of its conservation 
capacity.  

Given the current snowpack, near to above normal soil moisture 
conditions, and forecasts indicating near to slightly below normal 
precipitation, an average risk of flooding is designated for the 
Goodland HSA for the period of March 14 to March 21. To be more 
specific, the Republican, Smoky Hill, and the North Fork of the 
Solomon will be the rivers that will have the greatest risk of 
flooding. 

$$

Buller/Neilson