248 
FXUS64 KLCH 060011
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
611 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

.AVIATION...Outside of thin smoke and haze at KLCH, which should
clear over the next couple hours, the period is expected to be 
VFR. Thin cirrus are also expected to clear out through the 
evening. Winds will be northeast through the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Plenty of sun has aided temperatures in climbing to the upper 40s
to near 50 across the area this afternoon, with only some thin
high cirrus noted streaming eastward over the southern half or so
of the area. These clouds are expected to sink a bit southward 
this evening, but additional high clouds are expected to start
intruding from the west after midnight. Still, with an expansive 
SFC high over ERN KS shifting SE into AR yielding decreasing SFC
winds, good radiational cooling of the cold and dry airmass in 
place will occur. With the expectation of light freezing
temperatures across much of the area, the inherited freeze warning
looked good. Only change was to expand it slightly southward to
include some coastal counties/parishes, primarily to capture the
northern portions that will be subject to freezing temperatures. 

The SFC high is progged to continue EWD through the day tomorrow,
shifting east of the area by tomorrow evening. Temperatures
tomorrow are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today, and
we will also continue to see high cirrus streaming overhead. The
onshore flow in the wake of the departing SFC high will result in
a more rapid airmass modification WED night into THU, with the
combination of a weak coastal trof, WAA, and moist isentropic
ascent resulting in more substantial cloud cover and small rain
chances over WRN zones by THU. This regime will continue and
intensify, with above normal temperatures anticipated by FRI.

Rain chances will increase substantially SAT into SAT night as a
robust upper trof pivots through the Central/Southern Plains and
its attendant SFC low drags a dryline/pre-frontal trough through 
the area, possibly followed by CDFNT. Still some differences in 
global models at this time range that need to be resolved, but it 
appears at this time that some degree of severe weather risk will 
be present, meriting an outline in the SPC Day 5 outlook.

With the given uncertainty Saturday regarding the strength of any
CDFNT that pushes through, confidence is not high in the Day 6-8
forecast, which at this time is a blended approach, generally 
between the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.

13

MARINE...
Elevated northeast winds will continue tonight into Wednesday,
decreasing and gradually veering to the east and then southeast 
by Wednesday night as high pressure slides eastward through the 
Gulf Coast States. An onshore flow will continue into the weekend
and becomes strong Saturday ahead of a front pushing into the 
region. Expect elevated rain and thunderstorm chances as the 
boundary moves in. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  53  36  62 /   0   0   0  10 
LCH  32  55  43  66 /   0   0  10  30 
LFT  31  57  41  65 /   0   0   0  10 
BPT  32  55  47  67 /   0   0  10  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for 
     LAZ027>033.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ041>045-
     052-053-055.

TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for 
     TXZ180-259-260.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight through 
     Wednesday morning for GMZ475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for 
     GMZ452-455-470-472.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05