138 
FXUS62 KJAX 050149
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
849 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

.UPDATE...

Weak cool advection pattern will continue tonight as strong high
pressure moves to the central U.S. A shortwave trough in the srn
Plains will move quickly to the southeast states late tonight and
Tuesday morning, accompanied by increased moisture field and 
strengthened lift. Models have a decent handle on the current light
precip over srn LA to southwest AL, though the NAM seems overly 
aggressive with the precip compared to the GFS and HRRR overnight
hours into the morning. The timing of the precip entering the 
area is after about 3 am and continuing into the mid to late 
morning hours, then pushing east of the area. Not much change to 
the elevated rain chances over the area during this time period 
with chances ranging from about 40-50 percent over southeast GA to
10-20 percent across the srn most zones. Chance of precip is a 
little higher over ern parts of northeast FL in the early morning 
hours. Rainfall amounts up to 0.20 inches are expected. Lows 
tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s, with temps being held 
back by a blanket of clouds coming in from the west after 1-2 am.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through late tonight. A disturbance will move across the 
region bringing increased clouds and a chance of rain after 08z
and continue through about 15z-16z before moving offshore. Drier
conditions expected thereafter. Some MVFR cigs are possible but
latest guidance not too confident on low cigs below 2000-3000 ft.
Not expected any vsby restriction in the rain at this time as it
moves through early Tuesday. Light winds tonight become west to
northwest near 8-12 kt and gusty to near 20 kt by late Tuesday 
morning and afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Current forecast on track with northwesterly winds of around 10-15
kt and seas up to 2-4 ft. Northerly winds are expected to pick up
on Tuesday and advisory conditions will be possible late Tuesday 
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  56  31  53 /  50  30   0   0 
SSI  48  58  36  54 /  50  50   0   0 
JAX  45  62  36  57 /  40  60   0   0 
SGJ  49  62  40  57 /  20  60   0   0 
GNV  46  62  36  59 /  30  50   0   0 
OCF  49  64  36  60 /  10  40   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/McGinnis