913 
FXUS63 KFGF 042107
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

Winds and blowing snow tonight will be the main impact for the
period.

Shortwave continues to dig from Canada into ND, with snow showers
across much of ND and MN. Winds have been gusting into the 25 to
35 mph range from the RRV westward, with a few spots getting up to
40 mph or above. Several obs sites have been reporting below 1
mile at times, with a few spots near 1/2 to 1/4 mile. Roads near
Valley City have been marked with no travel advised, although web
cams show the lowest visibility is hit and miss. Winter weather
advisory for blowing snow seems justified, and will keep it going
through 03Z as several of the models show some stronger winds
continuing beyond 00Z. Further east, web cams from Detroit 
Lakes to Roseau area have been showing some drifting, but
visibilities look better. Will keep the area of the winter weather
as it is for now. 

Tonight, the winds will begin to decrease, although there should
be some 10 to 15 kts mainly west of the Red River throughout the
night. The main shortwave will be moving down into IA, but
satellite shows plenty of cloud cover upstream in Canada even 
behind the shortwave. There could be some clear spots which could
be a bit colder, but think with some clouds and mixing due to the
winds, temps will be in the single digits below. A few locations
could get down close to 25 below wind chills, but not widespread
or long enough to put out a wind chill advisory at this point.
Tuesday looks fairly quiet with northwesterly flow and westerly
surface winds. Temps should start to moderate and and get into the
double digits above zero. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

Much of the long term period will be characterized by a gradual warm 
up through the work week followed by a storm system bringing snow 
chances to the northern Plains over the weekend. 

Wednesday through Friday...

Light snow will be possible across Minnesota early Wednesday morning 
as a weak cold front moves through the region. Only a dusting to a 
couple of tenths of snow accumulation are expected.  

Thanks to the Wednesday cold front, continued below-normal 
temperatures are expected through mid week as afternoon highs reach 
into the teens. A gradual warm up is appears likely heading into the 
weekend with Friday's highs reaching into the 20s, ushering in a 
return to normal temperatures for early March. 
  
Friday through Monday...

Long range guidance continues to show a breakdown of our current 
upper level pattern in favor of a more progressive, southwesterly 
flow regime. Heading into Friday and Saturday, an upper level wave 
is expected to propagate out into the central Plains and will bring 
widespread snow chances to the northern half of the Plains and much 
of the Midwest. 

Although this featured is captured by nearly all long range 
guidance, there continues to be large variance in the track of the 
storm as well as QPF amounts and placements in the northern Plains 
region. As such, the main message at this time is that widespread 
snow chances are expected Saturday and Sunday with the potential for 
heavy snow for some locations. Details such as snowfall amounts, 
timing, and placement are expected to become more clear by mid week 
as models come into better agreement. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

Visibility down to 1-2SM at all of the TAF sites but KBJI with 
light snow and blowing snow. Sometimes down to 1/2 to 3/4 mile
with snow and blowing snow. Some gradual improvement into the
3-5SM range by later this afternoon/evening, and then above 6SM 
as the winds drop off around midnight. Ceilings that are in the
900-3000 ft range will lift to VFR above 3000 ft later tonight.
Northwest winds at 15 to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts will gradually
decrease tonight to near 15 kts. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for 
     MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...JR