555 
FXUS63 KICT 040913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

Today-Tuesday:
Main question is temperatures and clouds. Appears that clouds may
be rather persistent, especially in southern sections. GFS suggest
fairly thick high level moisture moves back in during the
afternoon. This combined with limited mixing in the afternoon will
keep temperatures well below normal. Little change is expected
tonight through Tuesday as expansive surface ridge drifts across
the area. Temperatures should rebound a bit in the south on
Tuesday, but extensive snowcover will suppress mixing and 
temperatures in the north.

Tuesday night-Wednesday:
The surface ridge finally starts to move east of the area with
models showing return flow developing Tuesday night in the west
and most areas on Wednesday. However given strong inversion, may
be tough to mix the return flow to the surface. This combined with
snowpack in the central KS will make high temperatures on
Wednesday especially challenging. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

On Thursday, the first in a series of ripples in the flow will 
push a surface low across the area. 0000 UTC GFS continues to be 
stronger with the ripple and resultant surface wave, which allows 
warmer air to advect into southern sections of the forecast area 
ahead of the front. The weaker ECMWF would keep temperatures along
the OK border near or just above 50. The initialization grids are
very close to the ECMWF solution, with only minor tweak down in 
central KS for potentially lingering snowcover. Colder air on the 
back side of the low will change precipitation over to snow, but 
limited moisture and dynamics, and the progressive nature of 
system should keep precipitation light. Slower movement advertised 
by ECMWF would linger precipitation into Friday morning. A much 
stronger upper wave moves through over the weekend, setting up a 
better chance for precipitation Friday night and Saturday. 
Differences between GFS and ECMWF amplify over the weekend, with 
0000 UTC GFS showing a much deeper closed low over extreme 
southeast NE at 0000 UTC Sunday, while 00z ECMWF has weaker closed
low over eastern mountain. Either way precipitation chances do 
appear to be fairly high. -Howerton 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2019

Mid-level clouds will stream across southern Kansas overnight
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the
next 24hrs. Northwest winds will switch to the west today as
surface high pressure remains over the region. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2019

Combination of relatively low winds, cold temperatures and
periodic precipitation will keep fire threat low this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    21   9  32  14 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      20   7  29  13 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          19   7  29  12 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        20   7  31  13 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   22  10  35  15 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         14   3  22   9 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      16   5  25  11 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          17   4  24  10 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       18   6  27  11 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     22  11  37  15 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         20   9  32  13 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            18   8  30  12 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    21   9  35  13 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...PJH