National Weather Service Raw Text Product

173 
FXUS66 KPQR 032244
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
243 PM PST Sun Mar 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and chilly conditions continue across much of the
area for another couple of days. Meanwhile, gusty east flow through
the Columbia River Gorge will persist. Expect clouds to increase
later Tuesday and Wednesday, with some light precipitation returning
to the region. The best chances will be in the Cascades initially,
but showers may spread across most of the forecast area later in the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Mostly clear skies across
nearly all of the forecast area this afternoon as offshore flow
remains strongly in place across the region. Despite some warming
from the afternoon soon, it does remain rather chilly across the
region. This is particularly the case across the eastern portions of
the Portland metro area where east gusts around 35 mph will remain
into the evening hours. Overall, this quieter but quite cool pattern
will remain in place for the next several days. Meanwhile, any
significant moisture will remain well south and east of the forecast
area, so will maintain a dry forecast. With generally very low
dewpoints and some light wind even around Eugene, will not introduce
any mention of fog or freezing fog in the forecast for tonight.
Expect a shift to more gap-driven winds through the gorge on Monday,
with winds beginning to ease in places away from the west end of the
gorge. Moving into Tuesday, expect an increase in cloud cover as the
next disturbance approaches from the southwest. Confidence remains a
bit low in the precise details, but there does remain some potential
for a mix of snow/rain at the onset of precipitation late Tuesday
into Wednesday. However, moisture is very limited so initially and
will have to overcome the dry lower atmosphere, so while mixed
precipitation is in the forecast for many locations, it may be mostly
rain with a few wet snowflakes, especially outside of the highest
hills of the lowlands and up into the higher terrain. Will continue
to evaluate model trends as this system develops and approaches.     
Cullen

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...Looking at the 
operational models for the extended show very few similarities. The 
GFS has a set of split lows straddling the area, which looks to 
bring in some spotty chances for precipitation throughout the 
extended period. The ECWMF on the other hand has a well developed 
upper level low, that will slowly traverse across the area. Model 
runs seem to be fluctuating significantly, so things could easily 
change over the next few runs. 

With this in mind, as well as taking into account climatology. I 
have leaned more towards the ECWMF and Climatology. Expect 
temperatures to remain below normal for this time period, with highs 
generally in the low 40s within the Columbia River Gorge and mid to 
upper 40s in the Willamette Valley with light precipitation. 

Although we can't completely rule out low level winter 
precipitation, chances are steadily decreasing as we move further 
into March. Extended Daytime temperatures in the low to mid 40s at 
the lower elevations, and 850mb temperatures above -5C, this would 
help to keep lower level areas from seeing winter precipitation. /42

&&

.AVIATION...Offshore flow to continue over the area through Mon.
This will bring VFR SKC conditions, except for MVFR to low- end 
VFR cigs in the Central Columbia River Gorge, Upper Hood River 
Valley and areas around Trout Lake tonight through the morning. 
Gusty wind across the entire area through tonight due to downsloping
off the Cascades. East wind to become more confined to the Gorge
Mon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR SKC through Mon. East wind 20-25 kt 
with gusts to 40 kt through 12Z Mon, then slightly less
thereafter. Gusts up to 50 kt at the west end of the Gorge. 
Weishaar

&&

.MARINE...Rather benign weather conditions for the next few days,
compared to the past two to three weeks. High pressure inland 
and an inverted surface trough near the Oregon Coast will result 
in offshore flow through Tuesday. E-NE winds will be strongest 
near gaps in the coastal terrain such as the mouth of the 
Columbia River and Yaquina Bay, where localized gusts to 25 kt 
are possible. Otherwise, winds will generally be in the 10-15 kt 
range with occasional gusts to around 20 kt. Do not anticipate 
small craft advisory level wind speeds through the week. 

Seas will remain well below 10 feet  through at least late in 
the week. ENP guidance hints at a longer period swell (around 20
seconds) entering the coastal waters next weekend, with wave
heights getting close to 10 feet. In the meantime, seas will be 
mostly wind-driven and combined with 3-5 ft background swell 
from the W-NW. Weishaar

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington 
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is 
commonly referred to as the forecast area.