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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF Product Timestamp: 2019-02-28 18:39 UTC
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035 FXUS63 KFGF 281839 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1239 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Temperatures rising into the teens the afternoon under mostly clear, sunny skies today. Some areas of partly to mostly cloudy conditions will continue across the area this afternoon as clouds move south across eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Thicker clouds remain across the northern half of the FA, helping to keep temperatures quite a bit warmer there. For a rare change, the cooler early morning temperatures are across the southern half of the FA. Models are not really handling the thicker clouds very well, so had to boost up cloud amounts somewhat, as this trend should continue through today as well. This is kind of a tough call, as there are holes in these clouds. Therefore it probably will not be consistently cloudy, there should be some sunny breaks too. Quite a bit of cloud cover will hold into tonight, keeping really cold temperatures or any wind chill issues at bay. Models disagree some on the arrival timing of the light snow in the southwest FA late tonight. Some models bring in some very light snow prior to sunrise Friday, while others delay it until after sunrise. Kept the slightly earlier arrival time for now, but would not be surprised if it arrives later. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 The large scale pattern for the extended period includes a persistent H5 ridge with an axis centered in the Gulf of Alaska, and a highly amplified downstream H5 trough. This will continue to bring cross-polar air southward into the northern Plains through next week. The latest guidance also suggests an element of split flow to our west, leading to a rather strong synoptic dry bias in the pattern. Overall we are looking at well below average temperatures with very little in the way of precipitation Saturday through Thursday. Friday will bring our best chance for precipitation for the next week with light snow expected for areas mainly south of HWY 200. Amounts will range from a dusting along the HWY 200 corridor, to nearly three inches in the Park Rapids to Fergus Falls area. Saturday and Sunday will be our coldest days through the extended period with negative single digit highs and teens below zero for lows. Monday brings single digit high temperatures along with a slight chance of light snow. Look for highs in the teens Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Main impact to aviation today will be clouds moving south across the region impacting the KFAR and KDVL terminals. These clouds will lead to some lower, but still VFR ceilings. Westerly to southwesterly winds continue today before becoming light and variable tonight. Snow tomorrow will occur largely to the south likely only impacting the KFAR terminal with light snow leading to mainly MVFR and at times IFR conditions. Lowered MVFR to IFR ceiling expected at other terminals as well tomorrow morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...NC SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Lynch AVIATION...NC