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035 
FXUS63 KFGF 281839
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1239 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

Temperatures rising into the teens the afternoon under mostly
clear, sunny skies today. Some areas of partly to mostly cloudy 
conditions will continue across the area this afternoon as clouds
move south across eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

Thicker clouds remain across the northern half of the FA, helping
to keep temperatures quite a bit warmer there. For a rare change,
the cooler early morning temperatures are across the southern half
of the FA. Models are not really handling the thicker clouds very
well, so had to boost up cloud amounts somewhat, as this trend
should continue through today as well. This is kind of a tough
call, as there are holes in these clouds. Therefore it probably
will not be consistently cloudy, there should be some sunny breaks
too. Quite a bit of cloud cover will hold into tonight, keeping
really cold temperatures or any wind chill issues at bay. Models
disagree some on the arrival timing of the light snow in the
southwest FA late tonight. Some models bring in some very light
snow prior to sunrise Friday, while others delay it until after
sunrise. Kept the slightly earlier arrival time for now, but would
not be surprised if it arrives later.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

The large scale pattern for the extended period includes a 
persistent H5 ridge with an axis centered in the Gulf of Alaska, and 
a highly amplified downstream H5 trough. This will continue to bring 
cross-polar air southward into the northern Plains through next 
week. The latest guidance also suggests an element of split flow to 
our west, leading to a rather strong synoptic dry bias in the 
pattern. Overall we are looking at well below average temperatures 
with very little in the way of precipitation Saturday through 
Thursday.

Friday will bring our best chance for precipitation for the next 
week with light snow expected for areas mainly south of HWY 200. 
Amounts will range from a dusting along the HWY 200 corridor, to 
nearly three inches in the Park Rapids to Fergus Falls area. 

Saturday and Sunday will be our coldest days through the extended 
period with negative single digit highs and teens below zero for 
lows. Monday brings single digit high temperatures along with a 
slight chance of light snow. Look for highs in the teens Tuesday 
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019

Main impact to aviation today will be clouds moving south across
the region impacting the KFAR and KDVL terminals. These clouds
will lead to some lower, but still VFR ceilings. Westerly to
southwesterly winds continue today before becoming light and
variable tonight. Snow tomorrow will occur largely to the south 
likely only impacting the KFAR terminal with light snow leading to
mainly MVFR and at times IFR conditions. Lowered MVFR to IFR 
ceiling expected at other terminals as well tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...NC