763 
FXUS64 KSHV 280018
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
618 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

.AVIATION...
Mostly low mvfr to ifr cigs areawide as cigs at ktxk, keld, and
kmlu have also begun to lower. sct shra south of I-20 and areas of
drizzle and fog further to the north and west across area. Mostly
ifr btwn 28/06-12z. Some gradual mixing as cold front moves south
across most of area and cigs becmg low vfr across much of area by
28/18z, and possibly becmg sct later in aftn at ktxk, ktyr and
kggg where nw-n winds increase to around 10 kts./07/. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

Region pinched between two boundaries this aftn, a warm front
draped across our se and a cold front poised just to our nw across
N TX/SE OK, as a weak upper level disturbance passes ovhd. The
result is a 15 degree temperature difference from nw to se and sct
shwrs across our ern half. Shallow cold airmass currently dammed
up in the Ouachita Mountains of SE OK to gradually spill sewd
tonight/Thursday, as yet another weak upper disturbance moves
ovhd. As such, shwrs and perhaps a few tstms will continue to be
possible.

Cold front to become diffuse by Thursday evening, with some slight
chances for shwrs/drizzle lingering due to the unsettled flow 
aloft. 

Temp fcst this pd remains somewhat treacherous, as some
significant discrepancies in model output continue. The NAM is the
cold outlier, especially for Thursday. Past experiences with these
shallow airmasses point to the warmer GFS/Euro/Canadian solutions.
Have still trended cooler than the GFS-heavy blends, but have
remained several degrees warmer than the cold outlier NAM. /12/

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ 

A very unsettled forecast will continue through the upcoming 
weekend as major weather changes begin to take shape as we close 
out look to February. Behind the passage of a cold front, expect 
the boundary to stall and shift back north on Friday with spotty 
showers possible as the front retreats back across the region. The
timing and placement of the front during the afternoon will 
dictate how much temperatures are able to climb and have trended 
toward the warmer MAVMOS guidance with upper 50s north near and 
along I-30 and 60s farther south. This boundary will linger 
through Friday night and Saturday with showers remaining mostly 
scattered in advance of a major Arctic cold front shifting south 
from the Plains late Saturday. Warm air advection ahead of the 
front will result in rather warm temperatures Saturday afternoon 
ranging mainly from 60s north through the lower to mid 70s near 
and south of I-20. 

By Saturday night through early Sunday, the Arctic blast will begin 
to invade our region with showers and thunderstorms becoming more 
numerous as the cold front barrels its way southeast. As the front 
gradually clears the region through late Sunday, precipitation will 
taper off from northwest to southeast but a brief window of wintry 
mix will be possible across our far northwest zones north of the 
Interstate 30 corridor. However, accumulations do not appear likely 
at this time. The remainder of the forecast looks cold and dry from 
late Sunday night through the middle of next week with well below 
normal temperatures prevailing through this timeframe. Expect lows 
in the 20s and 30s with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  55  47  64 /  30  30  30  20 
MLU  54  63  47  64 /  40  30  30  20 
DEQ  40  52  41  57 /  40  30  20  20 
TXK  42  51  42  59 /  40  30  20  20 
ELD  50  57  42  61 /  40  30  30  20 
TYR  40  49  44  65 /  40  30  20  20 
GGG  44  52  45  66 /  30  30  20  20 
LFK  51  55  49  70 /  20  30  20  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$