902 
FXUS63 KFSD 271118
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
518 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

Ongoing band of light snow sliding through the Highway 14 corridor 
early this morning should be on its way out prior to 12Z, and with 
lower stratus also starting to clear from the west/northwest, do not 
plan to carry any flurries beyond 12Z at this time. Otherwise expect 
a quiet but chilly day with some sunshine developing before clouds 
increase again ahead of the next weak system to affect the region. 
Winds generally remain light, but with highs only in the 5-15 degree 
range, wind chills will remain below zero most of the day.

Weak mid-upper level wave slides through the Missouri River Valley 
tonight into Thursday, accompanied by weak warm advection/isentropic 
lift on 285-290K surface. Models consistent in showing potential for 
around an inch of light snow, mainly along and south of I-90 between 
midnight and noon, with most areas seeing some light accumulation by 
the morning commute Thursday. Surface ridge will bring light winds 
by this evening, but increasing clouds should prevent temperatures 
from dropping too far before becoming steady or rising through the 
overnight hours. This on the way to highs in the mid teens-lower 20s 
for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

Stronger wave still slated to affect the region late Thursday night 
and Friday, with stronger shot of warm advection/isentropic lift 
ahead of the wave 06Z-18Z. This system remains focused near and 
north of I-90 on the latest models, with potential for 2-4+ inches 
toward the Highway 14 corridor, and trace to 2 inches south of I-90. 
Winds remain on the light side while the snow is falling, but could 
see some drifting Friday night into Saturday as winds increase into 
the 15-25 mph range. 

Temperatures Friday similar to Thursday highs in the mid teens-mid 
20s, and although this may "feel" relatively mild, those readings 
approaching 15-20 degrees below normal for late February. Alas, this 
is likely to be the warmest day of the forecast in some areas, as 
well-advertised arctic front pushes south through the region Friday 
night, with a secondary push of cold air late Saturday into Saturday 
night. Long range ensembles continue to point to this weekend being 
among the coldest in the 30-year normal climatology, with some areas 
likely not climbing above zero Sunday. These temperatures combined 
with modest northerly winds of 10-15 mph will result in dangerous 
wind chills of 25-35 below zero late Saturday night/Sunday morning, 
and again late Sunday night/Monday morning. Aside from the cold, the 
weekend looks relatively dry, though cannot rule out some light snow 
or flurries behind the initial cold push on Saturday.

Dry forecast continues into early next week, with slowly moderating 
temperatures as the core of the coldest air shifts eastward into the 
Great Lakes/New England area. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019

A bit of lingering MVFR ceilings, mainly south of I-90, this
morning will give way to VFR conditions this afternoon. By
overnight, clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next system
with snow possible by late in the TAF period. This will bring
renewed lower ceilings and the potential for MVFR to IFR
visibilities in falling snow. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...Kalin