456 
FXUS64 KFWD 252146
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Through Tonight/

Mid and high cloud cover continues to push off to the east this
afternoon leaving behind mostly sunny skies and warming
temperatures with southeasterly winds around 15 mph. Visible
satellite imagery shows moisture to our southeast where scattered
thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of Houston thanks to
steep mid level lapse rates and weak ascent in the westerly flow
aloft. Low level warm advection will spread north overnight
tonight and we'll see a rapid surge of moisture northward with low
clouds overspreading the region after midnight. This is ahead of
a weak shortwave which will cross the region on Tuesday. With a
rapid moistening of the lower atmosphere expected prior to
daybreak, a few warm advection showers will be possible,
especially across the southeastern half of the CWA. We'll have
some 20 PoPs to account for this activity. Otherwise, with the
extensive cloud cover and southerly winds, overnight lows will
remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s areawide.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...

/Tuesday Night Onward/

We will continue with the temperature roller-coaster ride across 
the region beginning Tuesday through the next week. A series of 
fronts will move across the region, the first arriving Wednesday 
into Thursday. The forecast after that will be heavily dependent 
on the progression of upstream systems that will impact 
temperatures and rain chances the latter half of the week. Much 
colder temperatures are expected this weekend as another arctic 
air mass invades North and Central Texas. 

Tuesday and Wednesday…
Although the large scale flow continues to be mostly zonal, a 
subtle ripple in the flow will approach from the west over the 
course of the day Tuesday. Given Gulf moisture will continue 
advecting through the next 24 hours, expect to see sufficient 
instability mainly across Central Texas for at least isolated 
thunderstorms within the shower activity. As the shortwave departs
the region Tuesday night, a more stable environment will 
overspread, reducing the storm potential. Rain chances will linger
through the night and into Wednesday across the Brazos Valley and
East Texas. Lower level moisture flux will continue into the 
region leading to the potential for patchy drizzle to occur, 
mainly across the Red River. 

For the western most counties, have sided with the warmer 
guidance as clouds clear up in the afternoon and westerly winds 
crank up, increasing compressional heating. Some spots may even 
climb to 80 degrees during peak heating and prior to the arrival 
of the cold front. Lows Wednesday night will be fairly warm ahead 
of the cold front, with mid to upper 50s expected across Central 
Texas and the Brazos Valley. 

Thursday and Friday…
Another ripple in the flow will arrive Thursday, leading to 
additional rain chances mainly east of I-35. Instability appears 
to be low this time, therefore, no thunderstorms will be 
mentioned. In this case, have sided with the cooler guidance, 
especially across the Red River, where strong cold air advection 
is likely and clouds will linger, preventing much of a diurnally 
driven warm-up in the afternoon. If warmer temperatures appear 
more likely and higher moisture content is expected, then the 
potential for thunderstorms increases for the afternoon. This 
ripple will exit from west to east, ending precipitation chances 
by sunrise Friday. Unfortunately, the rain free period will be 
short lived as additional rain chances arrive to the Central Texas
Friday night with an abundance of moisture in place. 

Saturday onward…
An arctic cold front will arrive early Saturday morning, ushering
in much colder temperatures that will linger through the rest of 
the weekend and into the early parts of next week. Highs on 
Saturday will likely occur early in the morning across North 
Texas, and mid to late morning across Central Texas. Descending 
temperatures can be expected through the day, along with windy 
conditions during and several hours after the cold front. All rain
chances will remain east of I-35, where the better moisture will 
reside. By Sunday, some locations, especially those west of I-35 
and north of I-20, may struggle to get out of the 30s in the 
afternoon. Fortunately, it appears as if the precipitation will 
remain across Central Texas, where temperatures will be safely 
above freezing. 

The cold temperatures will linger into the next work week with 
the cold dense air mass in place. Some models have hinted that 
there may be some moisture to work with by the end of this week 
and into the next, but it is important to note that confidence in 
the 6-7 day time scale is very low. Raw model output and 
precipitation type algorithms do have their flaws, and many images
have already been making their rounds in the internet. Models 
will continue to flip-flop in the coming days, and given the 
probability of no wintry precipitation is much higher than that of
any wintry precipitation, will continue to advertise a dry 
forecast where temperatures are at or near freezing. 


Hernandez

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019/
/18Z TAFS/

Passing high clouds will continue through the afternoon with
southeast winds around 15 kt. Southerly flow will prevail through
the period although lighter winds are expected on Tuesday.

An upper level disturbance will swing through the area on Tuesday.
Ahead of this feature, strong southerly flow will help pull rich
low level moisture northward. Expect a surge of MVFR cigs to
overspread the region late tonight at all sites. Further lowering
to IFR may be possible during the morning hours on Tuesday with
some spotty showers mainly to the east of the major airports.
Little improvement in cigs is expected through Tuesday evening.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    48  63  53  71  47 /   0  10  10   5  20 
Waco                50  64  55  74  53 /  20  20  20  10  20 
Paris               42  59  50  65  47 /   5  20  20  20  30 
Denton              47  63  52  71  44 /   0  10  10   5  20 
McKinney            46  61  52  68  46 /   0  10  10  10  30 
Dallas              49  63  54  71  49 /   0  10  10   5  20 
Terrell             47  61  53  69  50 /  10  20  20  10  30 
Corsicana           49  62  56  69  54 /  20  30  20  20  20 
Temple              50  65  56  74  55 /  20  20  20  10  20 
Mineral Wells       47  67  53  74  43 /   0   5   5   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/91