560 
FXUS63 KFGF 251242
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

Temperatures vary with cloud cover across the region this morning.
Areas in the northern Valley and along the International Border
have fallen into the -25 to -29 degree range. Cloud cover has
prevented temperatures from falling beyond the -15 to -20 range 
for areas south of I-94. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

Low temperatures are on track this morning as CAA and efficient 
radiational cooling continues across much of the region. 
Widespread 15 to 20 below zero readings are common with the 
potential to fall to near 30 below zero areas north of Highway 2. 
Winds continue out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph, pushing the 
wind chill values into the 35 to 45 below zero range. For areas 
along and south of I-94, high clouds are influencing the 
temperatures tonight, limiting the downward fall of tonight's 
lows.

High temperatures will only reach the single digits below zero with 
increasing cloudiness from southwest to northeast later this 
evening. Low temperatures will fall into the teens to near 20 below 
zero range tonight. Wind chills will approach 30 to 35 below zero 
with winds becoming westerly this afternoon at 7 to 12 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

Kind of a brief zonal pattern on Tuesday before northwest flow 
pushes back in Tuesday night. However, the next chance of light snow 
arrives during this time frame. This is kind of an odd system, with 
the lift being mostly mid and high level. There is not much of a 
surface reflection and mid level lapse rates are not that 
impressive. Do see a decent upper level jet and some brief 700mb 
frontogenesis, but it remains progressive. Models have been pretty 
consistent in showing a 1 to 4 inch range snowfall, mainly south of 
the highway 2 corridor. Very little wind is expected in conjunction 
with this snowfall.

Wind chills may dip into advisory criteria for portions of the FA 
again Tuesday night. There is still the potential for a Thursday 
night and Friday system. However, this is still a long ways off, and 
model consistency has been poor. There may be a little better 
potential for light snow across the southern half of the FA with 
this one, but it will bear watching. Hazardous wind chills could be 
an issue again Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites. High
clouds will begin overspreading the region this afternoon and
evening from southwest to northeast. Westerly to northwesterly
winds are expected to persist through the day and into the
evening at 5 to 10 knots.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ038-039-049-052-
     053.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ002-003-017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001-004>009-
     013>016.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch