898 
FXUS64 KAMA 251131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the period. While
close to unidirectional, there is still at least 30 knots of low 
level shear present to begin the period at all sites. Low level 
shear will end as winds increase following sunrise. Breezy 
southwesterly winds expected this afternoon at all sites, but cold
front will approach from the north late Monday night, switching 
winds to the north- northwest at DHT and GUY. Fog and MVFR stratus
may build in following this frontal passage. Confidence is not 
high enough for direct mention in the TAF, so placed a SCT deck 
and non- significant visibility reduction at DHT and GUY for now.

Ferguson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
A relatively uneventful short term period is ahead. Surface trough 
currently to our west is being reinforced via divergence aloft 
associated with the right entrance region of an upper jet currently 
located over IL/IN. With large scale surface ridging in place up and 
down the eastern Plains, decent pressure gradient has driven breezy 
southerly winds all night across much of the Panhandles. Weak 
disturbance currently over southeastern AZ will help reinforce this 
surface troughing early in the period before another jet to our 
northeast sets up another round of divergence aloft. Winds should 
thus remain a bit breezy today. Winds are expected to have a bit 
more of a westerly downslope component compared to Sunday. Combined 
with warmer 850mb temperatures, this should allow the Panhandles to 
heat out into the 60s. Have leaned a bit warmer than guidance. 
Warmer and breezy conditions suggest the southern TX Panhandle could 
have elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this 
afternoon. Have opted against issuance of an RFD in deference to 
recent precipitation.

Tough call on temperatures tonight as gradient remains relatively 
tight while cirrus overspreads the Panhandles. At the same time, the 
first in what will be a series of shallow cold air mass intrusions 
this week is progged to slip into the northwestern Panhandles late 
Monday night. Given such mixed conditions, opted to remain near 
consensus with lows.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday night...
Zonal flow and shallow cold airmass battles will continue through
the extended, until the weekend when a cold, possibly arctic,
airmass is expected to engulf the Panhandles. Until then, the
northern Panhandles will stay mostly cool and mild, especially the
northeast. The southern Panhandles will likely be more mild to
warm as the south winds will dominate. It's very difficult to
determine where the temperature gradient will set up each day, so
unfortunately there is a high bust potential for the forecasted
highs, mainly for the northern and central Panhandles, as this
will be the most challenging area to pinpoint where the cold air
will stall.  

Generally speaking, Tuesday should be quite mild, with the
northeast Panhandles as an exception. Shallow cold airmass will
likely push through the central Panhandles on Wednesday, it may
even make it through the southern Panhandles. Right now expecting
highs in the northeast to only be in the low to mid 30s, while the
southwest Panhandles could see highs in the mid 60s. Shift this
airmass a tad in either direction and you have a big bust in
temperatures.  

Low level moisture looks to advect into the eastern Panhandles
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, therefore have noted patchy
drizzle/freezing drizzle for the time. Warmer air is expected to
move in across the Panhandles on Thursday and again on Friday.
Friday may very well be a Fire Weather day (See Fire Weather
Discussion).

Friday night through Sunday will be quite chilly as we expect
another surge of cold air to move through the Panhandles and last
through the weekend. Right now wind chills are in the teens on
Saturday morning, but will be in the single digits to near zero on
Sunday. Have kept pops out of the extended as confidence is too
low.  

Weber

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated Fire Weather is expected for the central and western
Panhandles on Friday. Strong jet looks to be stacked aloft with
thermal trof over the Panhandles will help with decent mixing.
Winds look to be in the 20 to 30 mph with min RH values around 15
percent. Cold front expected Friday night, therefore if there are
any fires burning, expect a wind shift out of the north.  Fuels 
should be dry enough to support at least elevated for this day. 
Critical will be possible, if fuel dryness can push above the 70th
percentile. 

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

77/77/89/89