913 
FXUS64 KLCH 242332
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
532 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with clear skies. NW
winds will remain around 10 knots before decreasing to around 5
knots after 02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows 1028mb high pressure building south across N TX (the
southern bubble of the larger 1038mb high across Canada/Montana),
and the large 975mb low exiting north of the Great Lakes region 
across Canada. 

The southern bubble of this cold high has progressed about as far
south this afternoon, and will slip east tonight and Monday as 
the wind pattern aloft becomes more zonal this week. For the short
term, mostly clear skies expected with only scattered cirrus 
expected across SE TX/S LA overnight. This shouldn't inhibit the 
overnight lows, expecting upper 30s to lower 40s areawide for 
Monday morning. 

By Monday evening into Tuesday, rapid increase in clouds and
precipitation chances as the first disturbance of several to
affect our region. The subtropical jet will remain active this
week, periodically shooting upper level disturbances across the 
area, yielding periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms for 
most of the upcoming week. Another strong cold front is poised to
move through the region either Friday or Saturday, GFS being on
Friday, and the slower ECMWF on Saturday. The blended guidance
leaned towards the earlier GFS solution, hence the windshift and
cooler temperatures Friday night and Saturday.

DML

MARINE...
Winds subsiding this afternoon, but all available guidance shows
the winds picking up again this evening through early Monday
afternoon across our coastal waters. For this, will be extending
the SCA for our 20-60nm zones, and SCEC for the 0-20nm zones
through 21z Monday. Winds will gradually become more easterly for
Monday and Tuesday, and southeasterly by Wednesday. Showers and 
isolated thunderstorm expected by Tuesday and for most of this 
upcoming week due to a series of upper level disturbances moving 
across the region. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible across 
the nearshore waters and inland lakes and bays Tuesday night 
through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  37  64  46  61 /   0  10  40  50 
LCH  41  65  53  67 /   0  10  50  50 
LFT  41  66  52  69 /   0  10  50  50 
BPT  43  63  55  68 /   0  10  50  50 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for GMZ435-
     450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...26