994 
FXUS63 KBIS 200632
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

For this update, made some adjustments to PoPs based on
observations and high-resolution model guidance. Snow will
continue to increase over southeast parts of our forecast area
through the night, with widespread light snow/flurries continuing 
across much of central and southwest North Dakota. Also decreased 
low temperatures to near 15 below zero in far northwest North 
Dakota. Williston has already reached 13 below, though has since 
risen.

UPDATE Issued at 937 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Increased PoPs across the south central and James River Valley
with a high PoP-low QPF scenario in snow per radar and surface
observation trends. Otherwise, the forecast was blended to
observed trends through 03 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

No significant change to the forecast at this time. Expect a quick
drop off in temperatures this evening, with near steady to slowly
rising temperatures thereafter as cloud cover continues to 
increase. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed across the northwest
and far north central where skies will remain clear the longest
and temperatures as a result the coldest. Otherwise, light snow
will slowly spread across far south central North Dakota and the
James River Valley this evening and through the night with a 
series of mid level impulses and low level warm air advection. Did
add fog to the west per the visibility forecasts on the 
HRRR/RAP/NBM/GFSLamp through their 23 UTC iterations. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Concerns for the short term include the developing snow for
tonight and Wednesday across portions of south central and
southeast North Dakota. Temperatures will also be challenging with
recent deep snow cover in any location that has clear skies
tonight. 

Global models agree in tracking an h500 wave from the 
intermountain region east northeast through the central and
northern plains tonight and Wednesday. Overall, weak forcing
should result in light precipitation and 1 to 3 inches of snow
generally south of I-94 and east of highway 83, beginning this
evening and ending Wednesday evening.  

Temperatures this evening will very likely fall quickly as the 
sun sets. So have dropped low temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees 
from previous forecast and current guidance. Although this will 
set the wind chills around -25 below for a few hours tonight, will
not issue any headlines at this time. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

The H500 flow continues to exhibit h500 troughiness across the 
western US through the period. This will keep the cold air in 
place over the region with below normal temperatures for what 
will likely be the remainder of February. It also suggests any 
weak waves exiting from the western trough will impact the 
northern plains, resulting in several episodes of snow. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 937 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

MVFR stratus will spread across most of southern North Dakota 
this evening and tonight, with light snow across south central
North Dakota and the James River Valley. Fog may develop across
portions western North Dakota tonight into early Wednesday
morning, possibly impacting KDIK. However,this development is 
somewhat uncertain. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions in stratus and 
snow are expected across central North Dakota on Wednesday. KJMS 
will be the terminal impacted the most by the snow. MVFR/IFR 
stratus is expected across the west on Wednesday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA