361 
FXUS64 KFWD 121158
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Breezy northwesterly winds will continue for several more hours
across the North Texas TAF sites after the frontal passage we had
earlier this morning. Winds will become less gusty after sunrise
as the surface pressure gradient begins to slacken. All MVFR cigs
have either eroded or moved off to East Texas. Expect to see
mainly clear skies through the rest of today across North and
Central Texas. 

Winds will slowly back through the afternoon, and eventually
southerly winds will prevail regionwide. An increase in upper
level moisture will lead to cirrus clouds invading the region's
sky overnight, but no major weather concerns are expected through
this TAF cycle. 

Hernandez

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 348 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

A cold front is now making its way across North Texas, and behind
it, noticeably higher wind speeds have been observed. Much drier 
conditions are anticipated today compared to the last few days as 
dry air filters in. Clear to mostly clear skies will be the story 
of the day, with breezy northwesterly winds through mid-day. Wind 
speeds will range between 15-20 mph, with higher wind gusts 
possible. 

As surface high pressure quickly invades from the west, the surface
pressure gradient will decrease leading to much calmer winds the 
second half of the day into tonight. By this evening, winds will
likely be around 5 mph, with a gradual transition from the northwest
to the southwest. 

Weak cold air advection will help keep temperatures slightly
cooler compared to yesterday even though we should see plenty of
sunshine. Mid to upper 50s are expected areawide for highs, with 
lows dipping into the mid to upper 30s. 

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 348 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/
/Wednesday Through Next Monday/

Wednesday will start off on a cool note, but plentiful sunshine
is expected the entire day. Insolation will combine with brief 
shortwave ridging aloft and a surface high exiting to the southeast
of the area for the return of breezy south winds 15-20 mph for 
afternoon highs rebounding into the 60s areawide. A shortwave
disturbance aloft transiting east across late in the day may 
provide a few streaks north of I-20, but do not expect it will 
affect ambient surface temperatures much. Increasing pressure 
falls along the lee of the Central Rockies and in advance of our 
next cold front will provide breezy and warmer conditions 
Wednesday night and Thursday. Lows Thursday morning will only fall
into the mid 40s- lower 50s thanks in large part to a strong LLJ 
overhead and gusty south winds continue. Sporadic mid-high clouds 
will continue across the northern counties and another shortwave
moves east over Kansas and Oklahoma. 

A surface low/trough is expected to also move east on Thursday in
advance of our next cold front arriving friday as yet another, 
but stronger mid level shortwave moves east from the Central 
Rockies and Plains into the Mid Mississippi valley. This will be 
by far our warmest day of the next 7-8 day period, as strong low 
level warm advection combines with veering low level flow across 
especially those areas west of I-35 for highs in the 70s to 
potentially lower 80s west of U.S. 281 in the far western counties.
In addition, very breezy conditions will continue with west-southwest
winds by afternoon. Lastly, elevated fire weather conditions will
likely be present across our western counties due to the breezy 
west- southwest winds, well-above normal temperatures (15-20 
degrees/normals are around 60F), and RH values falling to between 
25-30 percent. Luckily, recent light rainfall has maintained low 
ERC values and enough fuel moisture that we do not expect high-end
fire weather conditions. 

Breezy west winds will continue Thursday night in advance of the 
aforementioned cold front arriving on Friday. A canopy of mid-high
level cloudiness will combine with the west winds for lows 
between 45-55 degrees. The cold front doesn't arrive until later 
in the day Friday, so still expect a fairly mild to warm day from 
I-20 southward with highs in the 60s/lower 70s. However, areas 
north of Highway 380 from Decatur to Sulphur Springs will see an 
earlier arrival of the cold front and likely not warm much with 
temperatures in the 50s with a slow fall late in the day. Brisk 
and cooler conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday 
morning. This cold front will have it's best push to the east, 
rather than south with the surface cold front likely stalling 
somewhere across Central Texas. Highs Saturday afternoon could 
have a broad ranges from the lower 50s along the immediate Red 
River Valley to near 70 from Killeen to Goldthwaite. 

We'll see one last relatively mild night for mid-February Saturday
night for at least those areas along and south of I-20, as another
surface arctic cold front arrives into the Red River Valley by 
daybreak Sunday morning. As is usually the case this far out in 
time, models are struggling with the initial shallow push of this
cold airmass, better troughing in the longwave pattern remains
across more of the Central and Northern tier of contiguous U.S. 
The European models is the the most progressive, while the
Canadian is the slowest with the GFS in between. Knowing the
European's better track record and resolution with shallower
arctic airmasses in the past, I(and surrounding offices) are
leaning it's direction with the timing of the colder air. With
this in mind, lows will range from the mid 30s along the Red River
to around 50 degrees across Central Texas in advance of the arctic
cold front. Highs will likely occur Sunday morning with falling
afternoon temperatures, thus the forecast high temperatures may be
a bit deceiving with upper 40s north to near 60 degrees across the
far southern CWA. 

The arctic air and brisk north-northeast winds will make for a
chilly first half of the work week next week, as the arctic air
deepens and entrenches itself across the entire state and across
the Western Gulf of Mexico. I did lean toward a blend of the colder
WPC and European guidance on temperatures for these periods. To 
be brutally honest, these temperatures may not be cold enough, but
with this being so far out in time, the feeling was to remain 
semi-conservative with a lean toward colder guidance. 

An organizing system across the Desert Southwest will begin 
swinging toward our area late Monday and Tuesday, but latest 00z 
deterministic and ensembles have come in drier that previous runs 
regarding any potential wintry precipitation. This actually makes 
sense considering better lift and warm-advection above the colder 
airmass in place will occur mostly across East Texas into the 
Lower Mississippi Valley. For now, I will have a slight chance for
a wintry mix across the northwest counties and immediate Red 
River Valley for Monday night into Tuesday morning, but confidence
is very low at this point in time -- without knowing the actual 
thermodynamic profile and moisture. We should know more late this 
week and by the weekend with regard to the arctic air, systems, 
and any wintry precipitation.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  36  65  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                58  35  64  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               54  34  60  47  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              56  34  64  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            55  35  62  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              57  36  64  52  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             55  34  63  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           56  35  62  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              59  35  64  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       57  33  65  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08