400 
FXUS65 KPIH 112018
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
118 PM MST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night. Moisture continues
to stream over the top of a building ridge of high pressure. We
will see snow persist through tonight especially in favored
Northwest flow areas, meaning along the Sawtooths (with some
spillage over into the Stanley Basin and Sun Valley) and well as
from Island Park/Centennials south to around Palisades. Total
snowfall in those areas through morning will be 4-8" with locally
higher amounts. Gusty winds will persist through the night, so
blowing/drifting issues will remain. All advisories in place will
remain as of right now. Elsewhere, snow will be at a premium.
Other mountains ranges may see 1-5 inches, with valley locations
including much of the Snake Plain at an inch or less. Downslope
will really cut into potential along the interstate corridor. The
models do want to keep a persistent band of light snow across the
Lava Beds and Craters, but that may amount to only just over an 
inch. 

With the ridge building tomorrow, we will quickly see snow shutting
off toward sunrise...with lingering light snow around from around
Driggs north to the Montana border. Winds let up a bit, but will 
remain gusty out of the south at mid/upper slopes as well as along
the interstate corridor due to stronger downslope/gap flow. By 
afternoon, snow picks up again across the central mountains and
Island Park. Snow will expand more Tuesday night in similar areas
as today's event. There is a much smaller chance snow everywhere 
else especially along the 84/86 corridor.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. An upper trough will 
advance inland Wednesday afternoon spreading precip across much of 
the forecast area. We never really get out of the moisture stream 
until Thursday afternoon, but even that break will be short-lived. 
Much of the weather Wednesday and early Thursday will be dominated 
by a split pattern with the tail end of one shortwave clipping us to 
the north and a closed low tracking across northern Nevada. The 
upper low will likely produce heavier snowfall across our southern 
zones throughout the day Thursday, and should move to the east by 
Thursday night. This will mark our quick break as another upper low 
will make its way into the area from the northwest on Friday with a 
cold front passing through Friday night. Some areas might catch a 
break after the front pushes through, but a low-level northwesterly 
flow could produce upslope conditions along the I-86/I-15 corridor. 
This will also begin a period of much cooler than normal 
temperatures through the weekend. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...An upper trough is getting carved out over the East 
Pacific with moisture streaming downstream of the trough. Models 
show this moisture band migrating northward as the upper trough 
amplifies and pivots over the WA/OR coast. Flight categories will 
fluctuate throughout the day and night as waves of snow move 
through. Anticipate the greatest impacts at KSUN and KDIJ with KSUN 
improving around 10Z tomorrow and KDIJ by 13Z. Hinsberger

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for IDZ064>066-
072-073.

&&

$$