National Weather Service Raw Text Product

390 
FXUS63 KIND 101723
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1223 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 

A couple of systems will bring first a wintry mix and then rain to 
central Indiana today into Tuesday. After a dry middle of the week, 
another system will bring more precipitation to end the week. Much 
of the upcoming work week will see above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of today/...

Issued at 950 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

A bit more freezing rain being observed upstream and getting
reports of possible sleet and/or freezing rain in the southwestern
counties this morning with snow north and northeast of that. 
After collaboration with surrounding offices and considering 
potential for slick roads with the freezing rain and sleet falling
on roads that are still below freezing, issued a winter weather 
advisory for southern parts of central Indiana until 3 pm. By that
point, expect precip type to be rain over those areas and mainly 
snow or rain/snow mix north of there and road temperatures should 
be warming above freezing as well in those spots. Snowfall amounts
should max out around an inch or so central and north (lesser 
amounts south), with ice amounts across southern parts of the area
up to a tenth of an inch but likely less in most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization 
was accepted for most items.

Deeper moisture moves out of the northern forecast area tonight as 
the first upper wave moves off to the east. This will allow for the 
potential for some light freezing rain/drizzle tonight. Across the 
south, deeper moisture remains, and a warm front will approach the 
area during the night. 

Will keep PoPs low in the north for much of the night, but will 
allow likely category or higher PoPs to develop tonight in the south 
as the warm front approaches. Precipitation looks to be mainly rain 
south tonight, with perhaps a wintry mix in parts of the I-70 
corridor. As the deeper moisture returns in the north, snow will be 
the primary type overnight.

On Monday the warm front will move through, bringing precipitation 
to all the area. Will go high PoPs. As warmer air moves in aloft 
before the surface warms to above freezing, there could be some 
wintry mix north during the morning. Otherwise rain is expected.

Monday night into Tuesday morning a surface low will move through 
the area. Will continue high PoPs. An upper trough will move through 
Tuesday afternoon bringing more rain. Some light precipitation could 
linger Tuesday night as the system exits, so will have some low 
PoPs.

Precipitable water values climb to around 1.25 inches by Monday 
evening, which means locally heavy rain will be possible. Given the 
wet antecedent conditions, the current Flood Watch looks good and 
will make no changes at this time.

Another thing to watch for will be gusty winds Tuesday afternoon and 
evening. SREF shows relatively high probability for sustained winds 
of 25kt, and BUFKIT momentum transfer shows gusts near 40kt 
possible.  

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 342 AM EST Sun Feb 10 2019|

Dry conditions can be expected early in the extended period as
central Indiana falls between systems. However, this pattern will
shift by Thursday as the next system approaches central Indiana. 
Strong warm advection ahead of the leading warm front will bump 
high temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday. So, 
when precipitation arrives on Thursday afternoon, it will be in 
the form of rain. As temperatures drop a bit across the northern 
counties on Thursday night though, could see a few snow showers 
mixing in with the rain showers, but that is a low confidence 
forecast. Will not deviate from the latest blended initialization 
at this time though. 

The above normal temperatures will continue through Friday with
highs once again topping off in the upper 40s/low 50s. So, again,
precipitation will be in the form of rain. However, the transition
to snow will start on Friday evening from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area, and this is a moderate confidence
forecast. Portions of central Indiana could pick up some quick
accumulating snow through Friday night before dry conditions
return on Saturday afternoon. The below normal temperatures in the
wake of the associated cold front will prevail from Friday night
through the end of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 101800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1218 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

TAF sites will continue to experience precip for the next few
hours, with some on and off FZRA changing over to rain at KBMG,
mostly snow changing to a rain/snow mix at KHUF, snow with a
little mixing potential at KIND (but lower confidence of the mix
here) and snow at KLAF. Ceilings will continue to drop, with IFR
ceilings in place shortly if not already and then 3 to 500 ft 
ceilings arriving around 0z and hanging around through the
overnight. Visibilities will remain low and even drop more this
evening after precipitation has ended. For now kept everything at
1/2SM or greater through the night, but there are some model 
indications at 1/4SM could develop tonight as well so will have to
monitor for this. Winds will be 5 to 12 kts out of the southeast
today, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for INZ037-
039-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for 
INZ051>053-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50 
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...50 
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP