294 
FXUS63 KBIS 100612
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1212 AM CST Sun Feb 10 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Current forecast looks to be in good shape. Made some minor
adjustments to current pops and populated latest sensible weather
elements. Updated text products will be out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 953 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Increased snowfall amounts into the two to three inch range south
of I-94 and east of US Highway 85 for late tonight and Sunday per
the incoming 00 UTC guidance, with 1-2 inches through ND Highway
200, and lesser amounts to the north. Where skies are clear late
this evening as of 0345 UTC, decreased overnight lows into the 
teens and 20s below zero, with near steady to slowly rising
temperatures late tonight as cloud cover increases. No change to
the Wind Chill Advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Little change with this update outside of observed trends. Pockets
of light snow will continue this evening under the stratus decks
across southwest and central North Dakota per GOESEast imagery as
of 00 UTC. Snow will increase across the southwest late tonight, 
spreading into the south central Sunday morning with the approach 
of the next shortwave and increasing low level warm air 
advection. One to two inches of snow south of North Dakota Highway
200, with lesser amounts to the north, remains on track for Sunday
per the 18 UTC global suite and the HRRR/RAP/NBM through their 21
UTC iterations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Cold temperatures and wind chills highlight the short term
forecast. The wind chill advisory remains in place through noon
Sunday.

Cold air remains across the northern plains as an upper level 
pattern begins to set up a southwest flow aloft anchored by a 
significant upper low off the California and Oregon coasts. 
The southwest flow will allow several perturbations to move into
the state and bring snow snow to portions of the region. The 
first is making its way across and will exit the region tonight. 
The next one will bring a swath of snow to the southern sections 
of the state Sunday, generally an inch or two.  

Overnight lows will fall into roughly between 10 and 20 below 
tonight. Highs in Sunday 5 above to 5 below. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

The upper level low over the west coast will meander across the 
central and northern plains late Sunday night through mid week. 
The impacts will be felt across west and central North Dakota 
late Sunday night and Monday night, with the possibility of up to
5 inches of snow across west and central North Dakota. This system
will depart the region Tuesday and the remainder of the week will
be moderately cold. The upper air pattern remains progressive
however, and chances for snow will again be seen Wednesday night 
and Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal with the
broad and deep arctic air in place, even with the progressive 
flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

MVFR stratus with pockets of MVFR/IFR visibility in light snow
will continue across southwest and central North Dakota tonight.
Snow will increase across the southwest late tonight, and spread 
into most of central North Dakota Sunday morning. IFR conditions 
are expected. KISN/KMOT will be on the northern extent of the snow
on Sunday, however, MVFR/IFR ceilings in stratus are expected for
these sites. Snow will decrease through the afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for 
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH