National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFGF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF
Product Timestamp: 2019-02-09 21:19 UTC
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996 FXUS63 KFGF 092119 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 319 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019 A weak mid level wave is moving through the region today producing some light snow in areas. Expecting just a dusting from Devils Lake east through the central RRV to the Bemidji/Park Rapids area. The lift/instability maximum, as nicely depicted by the SREF's MPV/FGen combo, peaked at noon today and will be diminishing through the late afternoon. Not expecting much for snow/flurries beyond 6 PM tonight. Temps will be on the chilly side north tonight where a little bit of a northeasterly breeze will bring wind chills back below -25. Have an advisory through 10 AM tomorrow for the north and western zones. Otherwise, another chance for snow exists for Sunday as an upper wave moves east across the southern zones. NAM has the best omega/lift over the south in the morning...while the GFS has it around noon. Other models point towards noon as well...with about an even split of QPF between morning and afternoon. Generally expecting 1-2" of snow south of a line from Valley City to Fargo to Park Rapids on Sunday. Winds are expected to be from the north at 10-15 mph and are not expected to be an issue. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019 Sunday's snow will be exiting to the east Sunday night. Southwesterly flow builds aloft ahead of the next trough drawing in moisture in the low levels. Monday will bring the chance for flurries during the day, and building southeasterly winds should lead to patchy blowing snow. While there may be some chance of freezing drizzle due to lack of ice nuclei aloft before dusk Monday, temperatures are forecast to remain cold enough in the lower levels to keep precipitation as snow. Models consensus has trended to keep the Monday/Tuesday low pressure system further into the Midwest away from the Red River Valley. As the system moves out of the Central Plains into the lower Great Lakes region, an inverted surface trough chaperoned by a parent H7 low moves through the Northern Plains. This will be the main driver for snow over our area keeping snow amounts minor, probably under 6 inches. Still, any shift of this system's track back towards the north will bring higher impacts towards the Red River Valley. Gusty southeast winds Monday will shift to the north Tuesday, although winds do not look to be as strong as they once did, likely due to a secondary trough splitting away into southern Canada introducing zonal flow back into the region. On the plus side, the warmer temperature trend still looks on track with highs in the teens to twenties above zero for Monday into Tuesday! The next system to move into the Plains comes mid to late next week, although details on this are quite lacking. Colder than normal temperatures return around this time as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019 Area of snow over central ND continues to move northeast across the region. Expect the northern TAF sites to have some snow off and on this afternoon. Cigs are likley to drop to MVFR with this snow...but odds are it won't get much lower than that. It only looks like snow will exist for a 2-3 hr period at any one location, snow not expecting a prolonged impact. Cigs rise by around 00Z and then VFR conditions are expected beyond that at most terminals. Devils Lake is the exception, where MVFR cigs return Sunday morning ahead of the next chance for snow. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054. MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ001-004>009-013>016. && $$ SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Knutsvig