AFOS product AFDFGF
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF
Product Timestamp: 2019-02-09 21:19 UTC

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FXUS63 KFGF 092119
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

A weak mid level wave is moving through the region today
producing some light snow in areas. Expecting just a dusting from
Devils Lake east through the central RRV to the Bemidji/Park
Rapids area. The lift/instability maximum, as nicely depicted by 
the SREF's MPV/FGen combo, peaked at noon today and will be
diminishing through the late afternoon. Not expecting much for
snow/flurries beyond 6 PM tonight. 

Temps will be on the chilly side north tonight where a little bit
of a northeasterly breeze will bring wind chills back below -25.
Have an advisory through 10 AM tomorrow for the north and western
zones. 

Otherwise, another chance for snow exists for Sunday as an upper
wave moves east across the southern zones. NAM has the best 
omega/lift over the south in the morning...while the GFS has it 
around noon. Other models point towards noon as well...with about 
an even split of QPF between morning and afternoon. Generally 
expecting 1-2" of snow south of a line from Valley City to Fargo 
to Park Rapids on Sunday. Winds are expected to be from the north 
at 10-15 mph and are not expected to be an issue.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Sunday's snow will be exiting to the east Sunday night. 
Southwesterly flow builds aloft ahead of the next trough drawing in 
moisture in the low levels. Monday will bring the chance for 
flurries during the day, and building southeasterly winds should 
lead to patchy blowing snow. While there may be some chance of 
freezing drizzle due to lack of ice nuclei aloft before dusk Monday, 
temperatures are forecast to remain cold enough in the lower levels 
to keep precipitation as snow. 

Models consensus has trended to keep the Monday/Tuesday low pressure 
system further into the Midwest away from the Red River Valley. As 
the system moves out of the Central Plains into the lower Great 
Lakes region, an inverted surface trough chaperoned by a parent 
H7 low moves through the Northern Plains. This will be the main 
driver for snow over our area keeping snow amounts minor, probably
under 6 inches. Still, any shift of this system's track back 
towards the north will bring higher impacts towards the Red River 
Valley. Gusty southeast winds Monday will shift to the north 
Tuesday, although winds do not look to be as strong as they once 
did, likely due to a secondary trough splitting away into southern
Canada introducing zonal flow back into the region. On the plus 
side, the warmer temperature trend still looks on track with highs
in the teens to twenties above zero for Monday into Tuesday!

The next system to move into the Plains comes mid to late next week, 
although details on this are quite lacking. Colder than normal 
temperatures return around this time as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

Area of snow over central ND continues to move northeast across 
the region. Expect the northern TAF sites to have some snow off
and on this afternoon. Cigs are likley to drop to MVFR with this 
snow...but odds are it won't get much lower than that. It only
looks like snow will exist for a 2-3 hr period at any one
location, snow not expecting a prolonged impact. Cigs rise by
around 00Z and then VFR conditions are expected beyond that at
most terminals. Devils Lake is the exception, where MVFR cigs
return Sunday morning ahead of the next chance for snow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday 
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday 
     for MNZ001-004>009-013>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Knutsvig