587 
FXUS61 KCLE 072201
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
501 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Chicago will move northeast across the central
Great Lakes tonight. A warm front will lift north of the local
area this evening ahead of the low. A cold front will follow
quickly from the west early tonight. High pressure will build 
into the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front has returned and has lodged itself up along the 
lakeshore in a very similar position vs Wednesday. Temps were in
the upper 30s at Toledo and Erie as well as the lakeshore areas
of Cleveland. South of those areas, temps were in the lower 
50s. Temps will remain steady to to rise a couple degrees
through evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Also a 
general fog covered the area with visibilities from roughly 2 
to 5 miles. 

For this evening, fog will remain at first. Temps will remain 
steady or to rise a couple degrees through evening in southerly
flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Radar showed moderate
rain moving into the western and southern tier of counties this
afternoon with convection showing up to our southwest into the 
mid Mississippi Valley. Through the evening, moderate to heavy 
rain will continue to overspread the area mainly across the 
southern and southeastern counties while lighter rain falls in 
the northwest. Thunder continues to be possible in the heavier 
showers through evening as well. Ground remains saturated and
with the additional rainfall, flooding remains possible so will
keep flood watch as is. With the cold front, winds will turn 
wsw and increase to 25 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Winds at 
925mb reach 65kts this evening and am expecting a significant 
momentum transfer with the cold advection. Have issued a wind 
advisory beginning in the west half of the area at 6pm with an 
expected FROPA time beginning around 7pm. The front should be 
just west of Cleveland by 03z so started the eastern half 
lakeshore section at 9pm. Winds were shown to be 5 to 10 knots 
less across the eastern inland counties so for now will leave 
out of any wind headline. Drier air will move in behind the 
front drying out western counties mid/late evening. Eastern 
counties will dry out after midnight. Winds will continue gusty
especially through the morning and highest near the lakeshore.
Most areas will remain dry as high pressure builds in however as
850mb temps drop, expect snow showers to develop off Lake Erie.
With snow much dry air overspreading the area do not expect much
accum. Lake effect snow showers will likely persist into friday
night but otherwise expect a dry night with partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge begins building into the region for Saturday and 
subsidence aloft will dry the area out through most of Sunday as 
surface high pressure builds back into the region. Temperatures 
through the period will be below normal with highs in the 20s and 
lows in the teens. High pressure will shift east as a weak low 
ejects eastward from the Central Plains with an upper level 
shortwave moving through the CONUS. This weak low will be south of 
the area, and so any precipitation would be snow. It will be late in 
the period before snow enters the region and the best chances remain 
to the south and west. Therefore, will continue with the high chance 
to likely pops and perhaps a quick inch of snow accumulation across 
the area on Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge will build over the area on Monday Night/Tuesday which will 
support warming temperatures back near normal. This will be replaced 
by another fast low pressure system moving out of the Rockies. 
Models show a more northern track with this system which would favor 
the warm nose reaching as far north as the lake. Look for a chance 
of rain with this system, beginning and ending with snow/LES. Like 
with the earlier system, until it moves out of the Pacific and 
onshore models will have difficulty defining some of the details 
with this feature. Another snap of cold air will follow for 
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread IFR and LIFR ahead of a warm front will lift to MVFR
this evening from the west behind a strong cold front. Expect
moderate to heavy rain to develop with widespread fog this
afternoon into evening. Thunderstorms are possible. Overnight
conditions will lift through MVFR to VFR on Friday. Winds will
become a significant factor from mid afternoon from the ssw
ahead of the cold front, increasing and turning west behind the
cold front this evening and overnight gusting at times in excess
of 35 knots.  Winds will remain strong Friday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
A stalled front continues to hug the southern shores of Lake Erie 
this afternoon as low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley continues 
northeast towards the Great Lakes. As rain moves in, the front will 
finally push north of the lake and winds will shift around to the 
southeast, increasing as the low approaches. The low will pass north 
of the lake tonight and extend a cold front across the lake. Winds 
will shift around to the west and significantly increase. Gales are 
expected over the lake with gusts to 50 knots possible, especially 
immediately with the front. The front will reach the west end of
Lake Erie around 9 PM and have bumped up the time of the Gale
Warning to that time. Strong westerly winds will present a low 
water scenario for the west end of Lake Erie, and so a Low Water
Advisory has been issued for tonight through Friday, also
starting at 9 PM. Winds will diminish on Friday in the wake of 
the front and become light and variable with high pressure 
moving in on Saturday. Light flow over the lake should remain in
place through Sunday night and winds may increase out of the 
east on Monday as a weak low enters the Ohio Valley on Monday 
and high pressure builds from the north for Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Friday for OHZ009>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     OHZ011>014-020-089.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for OHZ003-006>010-
     017>019-027>030-036-037.
PA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday 
     for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     LEZ142>146-162>166.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for 
     LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Sefcovic