057 
FXUS61 KCLE 070916
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
416 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front will lift northward across the region today. A
deepening area of low pressure will move through the Central 
Great Lakes tonight pulling a strong cold front across Northern
Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania this evening. High pressure 
will build into the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of fog have lifted enough across NW Ohio to allow us to 
cancel the dense fog advisory for this area. Elsewhere from the
Mid Ohio region into NW PA there continues to be areas of dense
fog, most of this occurring away from the cities. So be sure to
allow extra time to reach your destinations this morning. The 
dense fog advisories will go through at least sunrise across 
Ohio and into mid morning near the OH/PA border into NW PA.

Our attention will then shift to the rain potential today as a
warm front lifts northward across the region. All of the area
will get into the warm sector with very moist air expected. 
This very humid airmass will interact with deepening low
pressure that should move through the central Great Lakes this 
evening. A very potent low level jet will punch northward across
the region with scattered thunderstorms expected. There is 
concern that some of the stronger winds may mix to the surface 
with the thunderstorms for locations near and west of I-71. We 
will continue to monitor this potential through the day. Locally
heavy rainfall will become an issue, especially as the 
thunderstorms move into the area by late afternoon into the 
evening. A quick 1 to locally 2 inches of rain will be possible
which will cause problems along area creeks and rivers. We did 
expand the flood watch to include Hancock and Seneca counties. 
NW Ohio should see lower rainfall amounts but we will have to 
continue to monitor the potential for ice jams in this area. 

The gusty winds mentioned with the thunderstorms will not be the
only time to watch for stronger wind gusts. Winds will increase
from a westerly direction in the wake of a strong cold front.
For now we have kept wind speeds just under the 40 knot 
criteria for a wind advisory. The main areas of concern for the 
stronger wind gusts will be across the west and near the 
lakeshore. So dont be surprised to see a wind advisory for the 
evening hours if the low deepens as much as models are 
indicating. 

Today will be a warm day with highs near 6o into the middle 60s.
The warmest likely occurring during the evening hours just 
ahead of the cold front. Colder air arrives tonight with a slim 
chance of snow as the precipitation ends from west to east 
through the overnight hours. Southwesterly flow off of Lake 
Erie should direct most of the lake effect snow showers into 
Western NY. However there could still be some flurries or a 
passing snow shower through Friday afternoon. It will be much 
colder on Friday with highs in the 20s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly strong upper level low and potent upper level positive 
vorticity advection will move east through the Great Lakes region. 
The rapidly deepening surface low pressure system will also move 
northeast through the lakes region by Friday morning and to Maine by 
Friday night.  Strong cold air advection will take place in the wake 
of the cold front Friday night and winds will gradually diminish. 
Drier air will spill into the forecast area Friday night as well. 
Any lake effect snow band that develops will ride up the lake into 
New York and only expecting residual flurries over the northeast 
snowbelt region Friday night.  Otherwise, high pressure builds east 
across the area Saturday and Saturday night.  The high pressure 
center will move east of the area and allow a warm front to lift 
north into the local area.  Some limited moisture will be associated 
with the front across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday into 
Sunday night.  The cold air advection will keep temperatures in the 
teens Friday night with a gradual warming of the low temperatures 
into the 20s through the period.  The warm air advection will help 
temperatures recover from the 20s for highs Saturday to the 30s 
again by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level ridge will build east across the Great Lakes Region 
Monday into Tuesday.  This will be followed by an upper level trough 
that will become negatively tilted over the northern Plains states 
and the middle Mississippi Valley region.  Upper level low pressure 
system will develop in the base of the upper level trough as it 
moves into the Great Lakes region. Rapid cyclogenesis will take 
place at the surface as a weak low rounds the bend of the upper 
level trough in the southern Plains and tracks northeast toward the 
local area.  This storm system will move into the western Great 
Lakes by Tuesday night and put the forecast area in the warm sector 
of the low.  Warm air advection and moisture will support snow at 
the onset of precipitation Monday night and then transition over to 
a mix of rain/snow and then rain by Tuesday afternoon across much of 
the forecast area. The northeast will be the last to become mixed. 
As the surface low passes to the northeast, cold air advection 
returns and changes precipitation back over to snow Tuesday night. 
High pressure will build east into the local area and bring a return 
to fair weather to the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Air 
mass behind the storm system is not all that cold and highs will 
settle back into the lower to middle 30s for highs by Wednesday and 
lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
IFR conditions are common with low ceilings and fog reducing
visibilities to under a mile and most locations. Rain will 
spread in from southwest to northeast through the morning. Area 
of thunderstorms over Missouri will move toward the area this 
afternoon. Have only placed a vicinity thunder in the TAF's for 
now and will fine tune this timing with later updates. Ceilings 
will attempt to briefly improve ahead of a cold front this 
afternoon into the evening but this will be when the 
thunderstorms are in the area. Rain will end tomorrow evening 
from west to east and may change to some snow. 

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise then increase 
from the southeast and south. The stronger winds will be during 
the afternoon into the evening. Southerly winds will increase 
to 15 to 25 knots during the afternoon. As the cold front 
arrives winds will shift to a westerly direction with the 
strongest gusts occurring in its wake. Gusts of 35 to 40 knots 
may be possible. 

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR through Friday morning. Non-VFR possible 
again Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually increase through the day out of the southeast 
and then shift to a southwest direction up the spine of the lake 
tonight. Fairly strong winds will develop tonight to 40 knots with 
gusts possibly as high as 60 knots on the lake late tonight into 
Friday morning. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east 
Friday and gales should be done by late afternoon Friday.  Winds 
will gradually diminish to light and variable by Saturday night and 
will remain light and variable through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight 
     for OHZ011>014-021>023-032-033-089.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ007-
     009>013-019>022-029>032-037-038-047.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ009-010-017>020-
     027>031-036>038-047.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ014-023-
     033-089.
PA...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight 
     for PAZ001>003.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Friday for 
     LEZ142>146-162>166.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Friday for 
     LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Lombardy