223 
FXUS64 KLUB 032055
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
255 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have over-performed this afternoon but temperatures are
right where they were expected to be resulting in a warm, if a
little windy, early February day. Wind speeds should relax after 
sunset and will let current Wind Advisory run through until 00Z.

Latest iteration of operational model suite continued drying trend
noted by last few shifts with mainly wsw flow aloft and a cold
front by Thursday. A shot of cold air in wake of lead short wave
now moving northeast across upper midwest will remain north and
east of Texas. NAM was hinting that some of this cold air might
backdoor into the SE panhandle Monday night or Tuesday and while
that remains a possibility, no other solutions are biting. The 
colder airmass to the NE will already be retreating by Tuesday 
afternoon as increasing SW flow spreads over southern plains in 
advance of closed mid level low dropping southeast across the 
Great Basin. This low will open and shift east across the Rockies 
on Wednesday and with veered low level flow ahead of associated 
cold front, precipitation looks unlikely for all except perhaps 
the Rolling Plains. Went ahead and hung onto low end pops for 
showers Wednesday night when best window of lift/moisture occurs 
but amounts certainly look light.

Cold front will clear the forecast area on Thursday and while this
is another glancing blow of colder air, it will be clear and quite
dry in front's wake and likely allow for low temperatures down 
into the teens on the caprock for both Friday and Saturday 
mornings before temperatures moderate next weekend. In the 
meantime, warm and breezy to windy afternoons will prevail through
Wednesday with Wednesday probably the day with the strongest 
winds as low level gradients tighten in advance of western US 
storm. Went above blended winds Monday through Wednesday.

Looking beyond this 7-day forecast period, CPC continues to
advertise increased chances of above normal precipitation in the
8-14 day outlook through the end of the month. A cursory glance at
our operational models do not currently indicate anything
interesting at this point, but perhaps that will change over the
next several days. Of course, keep in mind average precipitation
for the forecast area in February for Lubbock is only 0.75 inch.
JW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Surface dewpoints look to remain high enough to keep afternoon
relative humidity 20% or higher, but breezy to windy afternoons
could lead to elevated fire weather conditions each afternoon of
Monday through Wednesday, particularly across the western South
Plains and SW Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024.

&&

$$

13/99