588 
FXUS63 KICT 030538
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) 
Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

Low clouds have actually scoured out for areas west of I-135 with 
afternoon temps climbing into the lower 60s. warm advection and 
moisture advection has led to low clouds remaining over the eastern 
half of the state.  Increasing southerly flow has led to the fog 
mixing out.  Even with the cloud cover in ern Ks,  warm advection 
has led to afternoon temps surging into the upper 50s for 
areas even with widespread cloud cover.   

Latest low level hi-rez progs suggest stratus will linger this 
evening and overnight into early Sun, especially for areas along and 
east of the KS Turnpike.  Latest bufkit soundings do not show the 
saturated low layers being as deep as last night, so not sure if we 
will see any lingering drizzle as well, but will include a mention 
of patchy drizzle for now.  Also think low layers will be a little 
too mixy for dense fog tonight, so may just go with a patchy fog 
wording and see how it pans out.  

Another much above normal temp day is expected on Sun with low level 
moisture shifting into ern KS, as 850h winds take on more of a SW 
component.  Given the breezy SW downslope flow, max temps will climb 
well above normal into the middle 60s with some areas west of I-135 
climbing into the upper 60s as clouds scour out from the west.  

Mon has the potential to be a tricky temp day. Both the GFS and 
ECMWF shows a shortwave (currently over the west coast) in the SW 
flow will trek across the plains with a dry cold front pushing south 
across KS for Mon in its wake. This will lead to another slightly 
above normal temp day for the southern half of KS with steady temps 
across central KS. 

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

Some uncertainty on how far south the cold front will venture before 
it stalls over OK for the middle of the week.  This cold front will 
push max temps below normal for Tue and Wed. 

A secondary surge of colder Canadian air looks to push south across 
the area Wed afternoon and Wed evening. Lots of uncertainty on this 
second surge of cold air and the associated precip chances, as the 
ECMWF is slower and eventually more progressive with this boundary 
and possible precip chances, while the GFS is more ominous. 

For now will go with a consensus, with the mid level flow remaining 
out of the SW as this shallow cold air pushes south across the 
region, with an impulse in the southerly flow leading to a chance of 
a messy wintry mix of precip for Wed night into early Thu as 
moisture overruns the shallow cold air. Latest GFS looks messy with 
a chance of freezing rain/sleet and snow. Still  a little too early 
to suggest any ice or snow accumulation amounts or impacts.  Stay 
tuned. 

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

Latest satellite imagery and surface obs show low stratus
advecting into south central and southeast Kansas late this
evening. In general, ceilings are in the IFR category with 
visibilities generally in the 7-8sm range. For the rest of the 
night tonight, expect visibilities to continue to drop some given 
moist low levels, but not anticipating widespread dense fog at 
this time given fairly strong surface winds and recent trends. As 
a result, have kept lowest vsbys in the 3-4sm range for now, but 
will update as needed if fog looks to become more widespread 
and/or more dense. Additionally, low level wind shear will be 
possible for the first few hours of the period in central Kansas. 
By midday tomorrow, look for VFR or MVFR ceilings to return across
most of the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    51  68  42  51 /  10  10  10   0 
Hutchinson      49  68  39  48 /  10  10  10   0 
Newton          50  64  40  46 /  20  10  10   0 
ElDorado        51  66  44  50 /  20  10  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   52  68  45  55 /  10  10  10   0 
Russell         41  65  34  42 /  10   0  10   0 
Great Bend      43  65  35  46 /  10   0  10   0 
Salina          48  66  36  43 /  10  10  10   0 
McPherson       49  66  38  45 /  10  10  10   0 
Coffeyville     52  68  52  59 /  20  10  10   0 
Chanute         51  67  49  54 /  20  20  10   0 
Iola            51  66  49  52 /  20  20  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    52  67  51  57 /  20  20  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...TAV