095 
FXUS64 KHUN 021610 AAB
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1010 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1010 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

High pressure has shifted off to the north and east and is now
centered over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. This has allowed for a
more prevailing southerly and southwesterly flow across the region,
resulting in another warm/mild day. The only caveat may be some cloud
cover that is very slowly drifting northward from the Gulf Coast 
into Central Alabama. Think that these clouds will largely remain 
south of the region until late afternoon and evening, resulting in a 
mostly clear and sunny day. With good heating and very limited cloud 
cover, think temperatures will warm a few degrees higher than 
yesterday and have bumped highs up a couple degrees. Most locations 
will reach the mid to upper 60s this afternoon. With plenty of 
sunshine, it should feel like a very Spring-like Groundhogs Day this 
afternoon. 

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

As we go through the evening hours moisture and clouds will gradually
spill into the area from the W/SW. The weak shortwave moving across
TX will pass over the TN Valley between midnight and sunrise on
Sunday. Lift associated with the system is weak but could be enough
to squeeze out some light showers. The clouds and better moisture
will keep lows in the low to mid 40s tonight. This feature quickly 
kicks east and any lingering forcing that would support light rain 
dissipates. In addition to that, drier air moves in aloft and clouds 
should start to clear out by the afternoon. Expect highs on Sunday to
be a few degrees cooler than today. 

By Sunday evening into Monday warm air and moisture advection begin
to increase in response to a system moving out of the Great Basin and
into the upper Midwest. We could end up with some low clouds, fog,
and light drizzle Monday morning as a result of Gulf moisture
spreading north into the area. Kept this out of the forecast at this
point, but SREF probs and forecast soundings would support this idea.
During the day on Monday as the system moves into the Great Lakes 
expect a weak front to approach the area. Convergence along this 
boundary should be enough to support more scattered showers Monday 
afternoon and evening. This frontal boundary will then end up 
stalling out over the area Monday night into Tuesday and could result
in some continued light showers. Highs on Monday should be in the 
mid to upper 60s again and possible a few sites hit 70 degrees. For 
reference, normal highs this time of year are in the lower 50s. So, 
we will be looking at a long stretch of above normal temps as these 
values are expected to continue for much of next week. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

A relatively wet pattern will persist into the long term period
across the TN Valley. The upper ridge will flatten over the area,
with zonal flow aloft lingering through the end of the work week. At
the surface, persistent southerly flow will advect plentiful 
moisture and unseasonably warm temperatures. Given the available 
moisture, along with the potential for any weak waves moving though 
the zonal flow aloft, slight chance to chance pops were maintained 
through much of the extended. At this point, its a little uncertain 
as to which periods would be dry or which periods carry the highest 
potential for rainfall. However, with model consistency fairly high 
on bringing a wave through on Wednesday, numerous showers look 
reasonable. This period also carries the highest potential for 
thunderstorms, given the marginally unstable airmass, but only
isolated thunderstorms are expected. 

Although model consistencies aren't all that high through much of 
the extended, discrepancies increase quite a bit with the evolution 
of a cold front. An upper trough will eject east of the Rockies late 
next week, with its associated surface low racing into the Upper 
Mississippi Valley. A cold front will trail south of this low and 
quickly move east. The ECMWF is quite a bit faster with this system 
than the GFS, bringing the cold front through Thursday night. 
Meanwhile, the GFS is about 12 to 24 hours later, bringing the cold 
front through late in the day Friday. Given the above normal temps 
ahead of the front, this timing plays a significant role in the 
forecast, as temperatures drop to near seasonal norms behind it. 
Given the uncertainty, kept with the blended guidance which brings 
the front through Friday. Given this is on day 7, the timing will 
likely change. 

As stated above, an unseasonably warm airmass will remain in place
through the latter part of the workweek. Temperatures will depend on
timing of any rainfall, however with a continuous southerly flow and
anomalously high mid level heights, temps will be as much as 20 
degrees above normal for early February. Forecast highs looks to 
reach into the upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday, with overnight 
lows in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday will be the warmest day and we
may see record breaking temperatures (record at KHSV is 73 degrees). 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period with S/SE
winds around 5kts. Low level moisture will be moving into the area
after 03 to 04z tonight and cigs begin to lower to MVFR. A BKN/OVC
deck between 1,500-2,000ft is expected after 06z. Some model guidance
is suggesting patchy fog and drizzle overnight but not confident
enough to put that in the TAFs yet. 


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Stumpf


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