042 
FXUS64 KMAF 021128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds/fog across portions of the area are currently 
affecting all but FST early this morning. While there could be 
fluctuations from VLIFR all the way to VFR, expect the low 
clouds/fog to persist until mid to late morning. Improvement is 
expected areawide by 17-18Z, with VFR conditions prevailing 
thereafter. Light winds this morning will become elevated out of 
the SW this afternoon, and could be gusty at times, particularly 
at CNM. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with S/SW winds under
12kt then expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough exiting West Texas and Southeast 
New Mexico and, consequently, -SHRA diminishing W-E across the area. 
Highest radar rainfall estimates from this event have been 1/2" or 
less, but anything beats nothing out here.  So far, fog development 
has not been as extensive as 24 hrs ago, but patchy fog seems 
reasonable based on current conditions thru at least mid-morning.

Convection should taper off to the east this morning, giving way to 
clearing skies and afternoon highs similar to yesterday's.  A 
secondary trough off the west coast will make landfall near the Bay 
Area at around 06Z Sun, putting West Texas and Southeast new 
Mexico under SW flow aloft. The closed trough is forecast to open 
and eject into the upper Midwest by 12Z Mon--a little further 
north than previous runs. As such, high winds in the Guadalupes 
are looking a bit more marginal than this time yesterday. Even so,
the NAM continues to develop a modest mtn wave signature Sunday, 
and forecast soundings mix to 650-700mb Sunday afternoon, where 
high winds are forecast. Due to the marginal winds forecast, we'll
issue a watch for now, and let later shifts make the call. 
Regardless, downslope warming will help afternoon highs to soar to
well-above normal, making Sunday afternoon feel more like early 
April than early February. Despite this, enough moisture will be 
in place to keep RH above critical levels, and ERCs look to stay 
below the 50th percentile, making fire wx Sunday elevated at best.

Meanwhile, a tertiary trough will dig down the west coast, keeping 
SW flow aloft over the region and keeping temps well above normal 
thru at least midweek.  This trough will make landfall near the Bay 
Area Tue afternoon, and move to near the Four Corners by 00Z Thu. 
The GFS is an outlier, and lags the trough by about 24 hrs, so this 
may change. For now, a blend of other long-range models will bring a 
chance of SHRA into play Wed night, and maybe even a little thunder 
along and east of a weak dryline forecast to sharpen up over the ern 
zones.  This will move east Thu, w/a cold front moving into the area 
Thu night, taking temps well-blo normal Fri.  As cold air moves in 
behind the front, we could see a brief RASN mix over the extreme NE 
Fri morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  50  75  51 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       73  48  74  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         72  48  77  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  74  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 62  46  65  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          70  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          68  40  71  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           71  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         71  48  75  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           73  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for 
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for 
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$