341 
FXUS61 KBTV 011421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
921 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Below normal temperatures are expected once again today along
with wind chill values below zero through the morning hours.
High pressure building into the region today will bring dry
weather to the North Country today and tonight. An upper level
disturbance moves down from Canada on Saturday and there will be
increasing chances for snow showers...especially over northern
New York and the northern half of Vermont. A dusting to three
inches of snow is expected...especially in the mountains. A
warming trend begins on Sunday and continues into the first half
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 915 AM EST Friday...Have gone ahead and cancelled the Wind
Chill Advisory that was in place for this morning as
temperatures begin to rebound and winds are fairly light. Still
a very cold day on tap however with highs only expected to reach
the low to mid teens.  Forecast on track.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will build into the region today and persist over
the area tonight. Thus expecting dry weather during this 
period. Still looking at below normal temperatures today with 
highs only in the teens. Gusty winds early this morning combined
with the cold temperatures will result in wind chill values 
well below zero. Thus the wind chill advisory for much of the 
area continues...but values may rise above critical values and 
the advisory may be cancelled early. Will assess the conditions 
around 600 am to see if we need to continue with it or not. Low 
temperatures tonight will generally range from five above to 
five below.

On Saturday...shortwave trough moving into eastern Canada will
increase dynamic support across the area during the late morning
and afternoon hours. As a result we should see snow showers
increasing in areal coverage and going forecast of likely to
categorical precipitation chances over northern New York and the
northern half of Vermont looks real good and have stuck with
that idea. Could see a dusting to three inches in this
area...with the higher amounts generally across northern New
York and the mountains of northern Vermont. The southern half of
Vermont will see less than an inch of snow. Warmer temperatures
are expected on Saturday with highs in the upper teens to mid
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...Synoptic scale ridging will begin 
building across the region Saturday night and continue into 
Sunday in response to a rapidly deepening trough over the 
western US. As this happens, another clipper type system will 
begin to track toward the North Country Sunday morning. 
Precipitation type with this system will be on the messy side as
a strong wave of warm air advection begins to move into the 
region with the amplifying upper level ridge. All deterministic 
guidance is in good agreement that precipitation will move into 
the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday morning around sunrise give or 
take a few hours and should start off as snow with 850 mb 
temperatures hovering near -8C. By Sunday evening, 850 mb temps 
will warm above 0C and precipitation will continue to slide 
eastward. Thermal profiles show a slow warming trend at the sfc 
compared to the low levels which supports a transition from snow
to sleet and possibly freezing rain before fully transitioning 
to all rain as thermal profiles below 5kft will all be above 
freezing. Overall, snow amounts less than 2 inches are expected 
with the lowest amounts across Vermont due to a 40 to 50 kt 
westerly low level jet. Any ice accumulations at this time look 
to be less than 0.05 inches which wouldn't cause much in terms 
of impacts other than some icy roads (which would be seen with 
rain falling on sub-freezing road surfaces). Temperatures will 
follow a non-diurnal trend Sunday night into Monday with 
continued warm air advection with the high temperature for the 
day likely to occur around midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...While some rain showers may linger 
around Monday morning, the bulk of the shower activity will 
quickly taper off by mid-morning with any lingering showers 
likely confined to the western slopes of the Adirondacks and 
northern Green Mountains. A developing surface low will track 
across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday 
night and help push a cold front through the North Country 
overnight and through the day on Tuesday. It looks like a lot of
the precipitation associated with this front will fall as rain 
with temperatures in the 40s out ahead of the front. There 
should also be significant shadowing over the Champlain Valley 
with a 50 to 60 kt southwesterly jet developing just ahead of 
the cold front. As temperatures cool quickly behind the front, 
there is the potential for some snow showers but accumulations 
looks to be a half inch or less at the moment.

Temperatures will trend colder following the front for the remainder
of the week but should remain above seasonal normals. Dry conditions
will persist from Tuesday night through Thursday morning with
surface high pressure settling into the region. There is quite a bit
of model discrepancy heading into Thursday afternoon when a potent
shortwave gets ejected across the mid-Atlantic. Some solutions point
at some snow for the North Country while others bring in a mix of
precipitation and warmer temperatures. The ensembles favor the snow
solution but given this is a week out, there is plenty of time to
nail down the details in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through the 
period as high pressure builds into the region and little in the
way of any cloud cover is expected. Mainly scattered high clouds
through 06z and then a gradual increase and lowering of clouds
after 06z...but still remaining VFR. Most areas remain dry today
with maybe some snow showers at KMSS after 10z...but
visibilities will still be VFR. More widespread snow showers
move into the entire area after 12z. South to southwest winds 
will persist through the period in the 5 to 10 knot range...but 
gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range will be possible between 15z 
and 00z. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA,
Chance SN, Chance PL, Chance FZRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SHRA, Slight chance FZRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily snow depth record was broken atop Mt Mansfield today of
98 inches. Thanks to PF for capturing the data for our climate
records. Below are the top 4 snow depth records for January 
31st atop Mount Mansfield.
1.) 98 inches in 2019 
2.) 90 inches in 1969 
3.) 75 inches in 1979, 1977, and 1971 
4.) 74 inches in 2009

In addition, the 3rd snowiest January occurred at Burlington
Vermont in 2019. Below are the top 5 snowiest January's on
record:
1.) 48.4 2010 
2.) 42.4 1978
3.) 41.7 2019
4.) 41.3 1966
5.) 38.6 1994

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/RSD
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Evenson
CLIMATE...Taber