485 
FXUS63 KFSD 292348
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
548 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

Arctic airmass continues to grip the region, set to produce record 
breaking low temperatures tonight. With winds gusting in the 30 to 
40 mph range and below zero temperatures across the board, wind 
chills are already -25 to -40F. This evening, we'll see readings 
continue to drop with air temperatures reaching -20 to -35F by 
daybreak Wednesday. The coldest regions will be see in the highway 
14 corridor into southwest Minnesota where snowpack is also highest. 

While winds will steadily decrease this evening and overnight, the 
brutally cold air temperatures will be able to keep wind chills 
solidly within wind chill warning criteria (-35F) into Wednesday 
morning. Coldest One area that may be borderline for reaching 
warning criteria will be our extreme southwestern counties such as 
Gregory and Charles Mix where temperatures will be slightly warmer. 
Given the uncertainty of exactly how cold this area gets, will 
leave them in the warning for now as it doesn't take much wind to 
make large impacts to wind chills. The morning commute and bus stop 
time frames on Wednesday morning will see the coldest readings.

Temperatures during the day on Wednesday steadily warm around 15 to 
20 degrees or so from overnight lows. This places highs from around 
zero in south central SD, to the upper teens below zero in southwest 
Minnesota. The "good" news is that winds will remain relatively 
light through the day, which will help alleviate wind chills. For 
southeast SD to the south of I-90, temperatures warm enough to move 
back to advisory conditions (-20F), or even warmer than advisory 
criteria near the Missouri River. But will keep the advisory going 
through the day given that temperature cool back down into advisory 
territory Wednesday night. Meanwhile for east central SD, southwest 
MN, and most of northwest IA, wind chill warning levels continue 
along with the colder air temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

Wednesday night, winds will be shifting more southerly while clouds 
increase across the region from the southwest with the arrival of 
mid level moisture. The weather should remain mostly dry, but with 
the cold temperatures in place, may see a few flurries develop 
overnight in southeast SD, extending to the eastern half of the 
forecast area Thursday morning. We will start seeing a warming trend 
beginning late Wednesday, with temperatures bottoming Wednesday 
evening or the early morning hours Thursday before slowly warming 
once again. Wind chills are expected to improve to warmer than 
advisory level by mid morning Thursday. Highs on Thursday could be 
some 20 to 30 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with near 30F possible 
in south central, and 0 to 5 above in southwest MN.

The warming trend continues Friday and Saturday with a broad upper 
level ridge building into the High Plains. Highs on Saturday are 
expected to reach the 40s for much of the area, especially where 
snowpack is minimal. 

Early next week looks like the next significant chance for 
precipitation. Models agree with breaking down the ridge in favor of 
a wave, but the timing, track and intensity of this feature is much 
less certain. But the best shot for precipitation does look to be 
the Sunday to Sunday night time frame. Temperatures remain tricky 
during this period making precipitation type difficult to pin down, 
but models are trending cooler, with precipitation type likely to be 
a mix of rain and snow, transitioning to entirely snowfall. 
Temperatures trend further downward through the first half of the 
week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected, mainly east of the Missouri
River, including TAFs sites. Limited visibility due to light 
snow/blowing snow will continue through late this evening. In 
addition, gusty northwest winds from 25 to 30 knots will gradually
decrease through late this evening into the overnight hours.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for SDZ050-057>071.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for 
     SDZ050-057>071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ039-
     040-055-056.

     Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for SDZ038>040-
     052>056.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

     Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for IAZ012-020>022-
     031-032.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for 
     IAZ012-020>022-031-032.

     Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for IAZ001>003-013-
     014.

NE...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for NEZ013-014.

     Wind Chill Advisory from noon Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for 
     NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...05