883 
FNUS74 KLZK 291013
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for BP Armstead Mountain Handburn...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
413 AM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on January 29. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire weather forecaster if
you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A dry but cold air mass will settle over the region in the wake of
the very strong cold front that moved through yesterday. Dew point
temperatures are in the single numbers and are expected to stay
there today. Winds will remain gusty this morning but diminish
somewhat by ignition time before picking up once again in the
afternoon. A second cold front will bring in even colder air for
Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Max temperature.....23 at ignition...Max 35. 
Min humidity........53 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Transport winds.....West 18 to 23 mph. 
Stability class.....C. 
20 Foot Winds.......Winds northwest at 6 mph at 
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 6 to 8 mph. 
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). 
Dispersion..........46 increasing to 61 in the afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated 
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5. 
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 7241 ft MSL. 
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5700 ft AGL. 

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR 
Weather cov.....                                    
Weather type....                                    
Tstm cov........                                    
Temp............23  26  28  30  32  33  34  33  32  
RH..............53  47  42  38  36  35  35  36  39  
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   7   
20 FT wind gust.10  8   8   10  11  13  14  13  11  
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   
Transp wind spd.21  20  18  18  20  22  23  22  20  
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 16. 
Max humidity........Max 78 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Transport winds.....North 5 to 7 mph. 
Stability class.....D. 
20 Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 7 mph. 
LVORI...............1. 
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). 
Dispersion..........12 early in the evening. 
Haines Index........2 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential 
                    for large plume dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3221 ft MSL. 
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1700 ft AGL. 

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  
Weather cov.....                                                
Weather type....                                                
Tstm cov........                                                
Temp............29  27  26  25  24  23  22  21  20  20  19  19  
RH..............44  51  57  64  67  71  74  76  77  78  74  71  
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   
20 FT wind gust.10  8   7   7   7   8   8   8   10  10  10  11  
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  17  16  15  15  15  16  17  17  17  
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

.WEDNESDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 26. 
Min humidity........Min 40 percent. 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Transport winds.....East 5 to 7 mph. 
Stability class.....C. 
20 Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 7 mph. 
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). 
Dispersion..........23. 
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6558 ft MSL. 
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5000 ft AGL. 

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR 
Weather cov.....                                                
Weather type....                                                
Tstm cov........                                                
Temp............18  17  18  19  21  22  23  24  25  26  25  25  
RH..............67  66  62  56  50  45  40  40  40  41  43  46  
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   
20 FT wind gust.12  12  11  10  10  7   6   6   6   6   6   6   
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  S   
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  14  12  8   7   8   10  13  12  10  
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   

$$
Forecaster...J Goudsward
Requested by...Michael Haisten
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1900598.0/LZK
.DELDT 01/29/19
.EMAIL mhaisten@fs.fed.us