798 
FXUS63 KOAX 280927
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

Early morning water vapor imagery depicted a vigorous shortwave
trough over the eastern Dakotas and western MN rapidly translating
southeast. In the low levels, an associated surface low was
located over northwest IA with a trailing arctic front advancing
through northeast NE. Very strong northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph
with gusts to 55 mph are being observed along and immediately 
behind the front as of 3 AM. And latest short-term model guidance 
suggests those winds will overspread the remainder of eastern NE 
and southwest IA through mid morning. As such, we have upgraded 
all but some of our far southwest IA counties to a high wind 
warning until noon. In addition to the winds, a significant drop 
in temperatures is expected this morning with readings falling 
through the 20s into the teens at many locations. A few flurries 
are also possible.

Tonight into Tuesday, an intense mid to upper-level low will move
from central Canada into the Great Lakes with an associated polar
front pushing through the mid MO Valley. A frontogenetically 
forced band of light snow or flurries appears probable along the 
front late tonight into Tuesday morning. Snowfall accumulations of
less than an inch are expected.

A bitter cold air mass will become entrenched across the mid MO
Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday with dangerous wind chills
developing. We have upgraded the existing wind chill watch to a
warning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for locations north 
of a David City to Nebraska City line where values will fall to 
30 to 40 below zero. The watch has been upgraded to a wind chill 
advisory (values of 20 to 29 below zero) for the remainder of our
area during that time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Jan 28 2019

The polar air mass will begin to retreat to our east Wednesday
night into Thursday, though overnight wind chills could still
reach advisory thresholds across our eastern counties. Therefore,
we have maintained the wind chill watch until 9 AM Thursday. 
Otherwise, we expect a substantial warming trend by Friday into 
the weekend when highs could climb back into the 40s. While we 
will indicate a chance of precipitation on Sunday, there is a fair
amount of variability in model guidance with respect to the 
timing of the next storm system moving from the Rockies into the 
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019

Very strong winds will remain the primary aviation concern. An
arctic cold front is on schedule to sweep through eastern
Nebraska early in the TAF period. Northwest winds will increase
into the 25 to 40kt range with gusts over 50kt likely through at
least 18Z. Only gradual decrease in speeds is expected 18Z to 00Z,
but should settle back into the 15 to 25kt range by or shortly
after 00Z. MVFR cigs will accompany the strong winds much of the
day, and a brief light snow shower could occur as well. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning until noon CST today for NEZ045-051>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

     Wind Chill Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday 
     morning for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-067-
     068.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for 
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-067-068.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for 
     NEZ065-066-078-088>093.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>044-050.

IA...High Wind Warning until noon CST today for IAZ055-069-079-090.

     Wind Chill Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday 
     morning for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     IAZ043-055-069-079-090.

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for 
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ056-080-091.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Dergan