956 
FXUS64 KLUB 260913
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
313 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
No major adjustments made to the ongoing forecast which features 
milder temperatures this weekend followed by a strong cold front 
early Monday. Precipitation prospects continue to look low to 
nonexistent through February 1st. 

Early morning satellite imagery shows scattered high clouds 
streaming over from the west, but that is all we will see from a 
passing upper disturbance today. Low clouds were developing 
northward out of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley on a weak 
LLJ. These clouds could make a run at our far southern zones late 
this morning, but most guidance shows them coming up just short of 
the CWA before they begin to dissipate. Assuming the low clouds stay 
out of the FA, plenty of insolation and light downsloping winds will 
provide a nice afternoon with temperatures peaking near average 
after starting out in the teens and 20s. Winds will turn northerly 
this evening as the next weak surface ridge noses in, but they will 
quickly return to the west and southwest on Sunday, increasing to 
breezy levels on the Caprock Sunday afternoon. This will lead to a 
mild afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 60s. 

This will all occur under persistent northwesterly flow aloft as 
West Texas remains sandwiched between a large trough across the 
eastern half of the continent and a high-amplitude ridge near the 
West Coast. This weather pattern will continue to supply rounds of 
bitter cold Arctic air to the Midwest. We won't be immune to at 
least glancing blows from this air with our next shot moving in 
early Monday. The initial FROPA will likely clear our FA by early to 
mid-morning, with a secondary surge of even colder air filtering 
in during the afternoon. A tight pressure gradient and strong 
pressure rises will foster gusty north winds sustained at least in
the 20 to 30 mph range, and likely venturing to advisory levels 
for a time at many spots. Most locations likely won't make it out 
of the 40s, with temperatures falling through the second half of 
the day. We may see mid-level clouds fill in behind the FROPA 
Monday afternoon/evening, but dry low-levels and minimal/fleeting 
upper support will keep PoPs low, with any light snow likely tied 
to enhancement along the terrain of the southern Rockies. 

Temperatures will tumble into the teens and low 20s by early Tuesday 
as winds drop off and a traversing surface ridge will keep 
temperatures 10-15 degrees below average Tuesday afternoon. 
Additional cold air will pour into the Midwest through the middle of 
next week, and at some point it will likely backdoor into the 
region, though exactly when is subject to debate. The GFS continues 
to advertise this occurring on Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps the 
colder air bottled up to our northeast until late week. The 
blended guidance (and our forecast) leans toward the cooler 
solutions which seems more realistic given how cold/dense the 
airmass affecting the middle part of the country will be. 
Eventually it does look like the stagnant synoptic-scale weather 
pattern will begin to breakdown, losing amplitude and shifting 
eastward. In addition, a disturbance may attempt to undercut the 
western ridge and approach the southern High Plains by late week. 
At this point it looks like this system would be moisture-starved,
meaning West Texas would likely remain dry.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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