375 
FXUS63 KUNR 232038
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
138 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

Upper level analysis shows a broad trough over the 
CONUS, with the northern plains under northwesterly flow. Skies 
across the region are becoming increasingly cloudy. Surface low and 
its associated cold front are pushing into ND this afternoon. Ahead 
of this front, surface winds are westerly, and temperatures are 
warming into the 30s.

The cold front will move into SD this evening, bringing with it 
light snow and gusty northwest winds. Snow accumulations will be 
minimal across the western SD plains, but 1 to 3 inches will be 
possible over northeastern WY where there is better frontogenesis, 
and the slightly upslope-enhanced northern Hills could see an inch 
or two. Pressure rises of 3-4 mb/3 hr will contribute to 
northwesterly winds of 20 to 30 mph tonight, resulting in some 
blowing snow, even in areas that don't receive additional snowfall 
tonight. Lows tonight will fall into the single digits.

With the arctic airmass over the northern plains, highs Thursday 
will be only in the teens. However, a warming trend will take place 
through the weekend. Several waves moving over the baroclinic zone 
will result in near daily chances for light precipitation for the 
next week. The northern Hills could pick up an additional inch or so 
with each system, but most places will receive little to no snow 
accumulation. This weekend, temperatures will be warm enough for 
rain or a mix in some areas. Widespread 40s are expected for highs 
on Sunday.

The above average temperatures will be short-lived, however, as the 
next arctic front dives into the northern plains Monday. Highs will 
cool back into the teens and 20s. Models are showing below average 
temperatures sticking around through the end of January.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1033 AM MST Wed Jan 23 2019

An upper level disturbance will bring some light snowfall to 
northeast WY and much of western SD late this afternoon and
through tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected, especially 
across northeast WY, the northern Black Hills area, and adjacent
plains. An accompanying cold front will bring gusty northerly 
winds late today and tonight. 

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...13