481 
FXUS64 KMEG 211017
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
417 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Arctic high pressure dominates the weather for much of the 
forecast period; however there a few frontal systems that will 
also pass through the Mid-South in the next week. 

Models in general agreement most of this week, however by the
end of the week, the timing of the shortwaves are different 
for the different models and result in timing differences late 
this week and weekend. Generally we start under a surface high
pressure system with northwest flow aloft.

On Tuesday, we begin to build in clouds and increase the chance
for some rain associated with a frontal system that will move
through the Mid-South Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the
front passes through some areas may see just under two inches of
rain in 12 hours or so. Then the front moves through and begins to
lower the temperatures. 

On Wednesday, there as the system moves to the east there may be
some snow mixed with the rain as the system is ending. One model
hints at some freezing rain, however, the all the other models
hinting that the surface temperature should mainly be above
freezing and any WINTRY precip will not stick. 

Thursday should have some nice weather has a high moves into the
area. Thursday night the GFS brings through a clipper system and
this may bring rain/snow into the area, yet ECMWF doesn't have
anything for this time, went low PoPs for Thursday night across
most of the area.

Friday brings high pressure back into the area for the GFS,
meanwhile the ECMWF continues the high in the Mid-South.  

On the weekend a frontal system moves through the area and on
Saturday evening. The precipitation with this event will likely be
no where near the mid-week event. However, there are is better
chance that some of the precipitation will be snow. TLSJr


&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs 

VFR conditions are expected over the upcoming TAF cycle. Winds 
will be 4-8kt initially from the Northeast, shifting toward the 
East with time.

30


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$