301 
FXUS64 KFWD 210516
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1116 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

VFR conditions and SSE winds will prevail through 00z. By late
Monday morning, wind speeds will begin to increase as the surface
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching storm
system. Winds of 10-20 kts with some gusts near 30 kts are
expected during the afternoon. 

The strengthened southerly flow will supply ample moisture to the
area by Monday evening, prompting the development of MVFR cigs 
between 00-06z. While guidance remains torn on the onset timing 
of these conditions at the TAF sites, have generally hedged toward
the earliest guidance with such strong low-level flow of 40-50 
kts forecast to be in place. Breezy southerly surface winds will 
prevail into Monday night along with widespread MVFR stratus. Some
drizzle or light rain may develop, likely after 06z, but have 
withheld any mention from the extended DFW TAF for the time being 
due to low confidence. 

-Stalley

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 815 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/
The current forecast is largely in good shape this evening, though
have made some upward adjustments to cloud cover based on 
satellite trends. A band of rather dense cirrus is spreading into 
the I-35 corridor as of 8 PM, with thinner coverage to the west 
and east. This may cause some occasional interruptions to eclipse 
viewing tonight, but most of this cloud cover will only be 
sufficient for creating a thin veil rather than a true overcast 
sky. Have also nudged low temperatures up a degree or two west of 
I-35 where clouds may prevail through most of the overnight hours,
inhibiting what would otherwise be very favorable radiational 
cooling.

-Stalley

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/
/Tonight/
Some high clouds will continue to stream through the region
through the evening hours. While this may make for less than
perfect viewing of the lunar eclipse, the thin nature of the 
clouds means the moon should stay visible but may be a little
fuzzy at times. Otherwise temperatures will be cool but the 
light southerly winds will keep a floor underneath temperatures 
and lows should only fall into the 30s area wide. 

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/
/Monday and beyond/

A strengthening upper level system moving east across the western
US will result in breezy southerly winds around 15 to 25 mph on 
Monday. Decided to hold off on a Wind Advisory with this package 
since most guidance is just below criteria. Extensive low level 
cloud cover will begin to stream in from the Gulf late Monday 
afternoon aided by a 40-50 knot low level jet. Overcast skies 
Monday night will keep low temperatures mild (low 50s) across most
of the region.

Strong warm advection Monday night and Tuesday ahead a cold front
will result in light rain showers mainly east of the I-35
corridor. The cold front will move across the region Tuesday
afternoon, but highs will still reach the 60s since the colder 
air won't begin to filter in until Tuesday night. Drier air will 
also decrease rain chances from northwest to southeast overnight, 
and by Wednesday morning low rain chances will be limited to our 
far southeastern counties. Some model guidance has hinted at 
elevated thunderstorms Tuesday night, but for now did not include 
a mention of thunder in the forecast. 

The remainder of the week and weekend will be much cooler and 
rain-free. Wednesday will be one of the cooler days, with highs 
only in the 40s. Despite a slight warm-up on Thursday, another 
disturbance will push a dry cold front through Thursday night and
low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s along the Red River 
to just above freezing across Central Texas. By the weekend, 
another cold front will arrive, and highs will remain in the upper
40s to mid 50s. 

Villanueva-Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    34  61  52  64  34 /   0   0   5  20  10 
Waco                33  60  52  66  34 /   0   0   5  20  20 
Paris               30  54  46  59  31 /   0   0  30  60  30 
Denton              34  60  52  63  32 /   0   0   5  20   5 
McKinney            33  58  51  62  32 /   0   0  10  30  10 
Dallas              34  60  52  63  34 /   0   0  10  20  10 
Terrell             33  60  51  63  32 /   0   0  10  40  20 
Corsicana           33  60  52  63  34 /   0   0  10  50  20 
Temple              34  59  52  66  35 /   0   0   5  20  20 
Mineral Wells       36  63  50  63  32 /   0   0   0  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/90