437 
FXUS64 KLUB 202324
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
524 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF period. Southwest winds
to ramp up tomorrow afternoon on the Caprock, affecting KLBB and
KPVW. KCDS will likely stay more southerly, missing out on gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Rather abundant cirrus continued to stream southeast across the
region this afternoon all in advance of a messy upper ridge axis
departing the Four Corners. Unfortunately for skygazers, this
ridge is too weak to dissipate the high clouds for unobstructed 
viewing of tonight's total lunar eclipse from 1041 thru 1143 PM.
With the exception of some cooler SSE winds anchoring across our
far eastern counties, these clouds have curbed temps quite a bit
over the eastern South Plains.

Lows tonight will fare quite mild for a change with mid-upper 30s
on tap area wide before we see some breaks in the high clouds 
for MLK Day as upper winds turn SW behind the ridge axis. Lee 
troughing will sharpen in response to stronger SW flow ahead of a 
trough digging through the Colorado Plateau. Although a modest jet
maxima 700-500mb is progged to track over our southern counties 
by early afternoon, the strongest wind cores aloft will be delayed
until early Tuesday morning once the upper trough axis pushes 
across. We continue to favor mid-upper 70s for highs tomorrow 
given deep and breezy SW flow, strong thermal ridging atop the 
CWA and also a reprieve from today's thicker high clouds. Strong 
northerly winds of 30-35 mph do appear more likely on Tuesday 
following a cold front with ample cold air advection.

Behind Tuesday's trough and cold front, models are in great
agreement with depicting winds aloft returning to a NNW flow. 
This flow is favored to remain locked in place through the weekend
and potentially extend into early next week given anomalous 
ridging to our west and deep troughing farther east. Cold fronts 
of mostly meager intensity will be the theme in this pattern for
our domain, with arrival times almost perfectly synchronized to 
48 hours. After Tuesday's front, models agree in delivering the 
next front on Thursday, with another by Saturday, followed by yet 
another by Monday the 28th. Saturated layers in this flow regime 
appear very spotty and fleeting, so PoPs remain dry for now with
temps generally holding near climatology.

FIRE WEATHER...
An elevated wildfire risk appears likely on Monday spanning much 
of the Caprock where SW winds of 20-25 mph will combine with RH 
values bottoming in the teens. ERC values are generally around 40 
which are still below normal, but last week we did see a few 
fires develop with one growing to 200 acres near Sundown. Still, 
wildfire growth should be hindered by the meager ERC values, so 
later forecasts may follow suit with an RFD statement.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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