National Weather Service Raw Text Product

434 
FXUS64 KMOB 202146
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
346 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Upper level trof axis pivots 
eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. In its wake, short-
wave ridging aloft overspreads the central Gulf coast region into
the day Monday. Surface high pressure axis slides eastward over 
the Ohio River Valley by Monday. Winds are forecast to decouple 
tonight. Resultant lighter winds combined with drier air and clear
skies tonight favors efficient radiational cooling processes. 
Lows sink into the mid to upper 20s north of the coast. Under 
sunny skies on Monday, highs in the mid 50s. Lows range from 9 to 
13 degrees below normal and Monday's highs 4 to 8 degrees below 
normal. Due to a dry low to mid level airmass, daytime mixing 
lends a need to undercut guidance dewpoints by several degrees. 
With these adjustments gridded RH values for Monday indicates 
lowest values 26 to 31%. /10

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A large, 
strong surface high pressure system across the eastern conus, 
with a central pressure of 1040mb across Ohio and a ridge 
extending south to the southern Gulf of Mexico, will shift east 
over the western Atlantic by midnight Tuesday night. This will 
allow a light easterly Monday night to shift to the southeast on 
Tuesday, and then to the south buy late Tuesday night into 
Wednesday while the next cold front approaches from the northwest.
A broad upper ridge over the northern gulf and southern states 
will also shift eastward as the next upper trough exits the 
Rockies and desert southwest and dives southeast over the Great 
Plains and northwest Mexico by late Tuesday afternoon. This upper 
trough will then extend from the western Great Lakes, along the 
length of the Mississippi River, to the Bay of Campeche by 
midnight Wednesday night. Rain chances will increase Tuesday 
afternoon through midweek ahead of the trough and cold front, with
an 80 percent chance of rain showers expected along and west of
Tombigbee River by late Tuesday night, with scattered to numerous
coverage to the east. Definite rain chances and a slight chance 
of thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday, with the precipitation
tapering off from west to east Wednesday evening as the strong 
cold front moves south of the coast. /22

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Another dry period will
then resume as the upper trough moves east of the region Thursday
morning, followed by a reinforcing upper trough late Thursday 
night into Friday. Surface high pressure will also build in from 
the west throughout the day Thursday, followed by a reinforcing 
cold front moving through the forecast area late Thursday night 
into Friday. Forecast confidence is low after this point as the 
GFS continues to the have the large upper trough over the eastern 
conus reinforced even further through Sunday morning keeping the 
area dry, while the ECMWF is much more progressive bringing yet 
another upper trough that digs further south then the last and 
approaches the region from the west Saturday night. The ECMWF 
develops an associated surface low pressure area over the 
northwest Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and then tracks it east 
across the northern gulf Saturday night before deepening to around
998mb by noon Sunday across the northeast gulf, with another 
strong cold front pushing south through the forecast area Saturday
night. This scenario would bring a high probability of very cold 
rain across the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday 
afternoon. Due to the forecast confidence at this time, will go 
with a blend of the models, keeping scattered rain showers in the 
forecast during this time frame. /22

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas subside tonight as surface high pressure
axis moves moves in from the west. Onshore flow strengthens by 
Tuesday as next cold front moves eastward out of the Plains. 
Strengthening onshore fetch causes seas to rebuild into the middle
of the week. Frontal passage brings next wind shift Wednesday
night and strong northwest flow in its wake to open up the 
latter end of the week. Seas to remain elevated. Next chance of 
rain comes mid week with the approach and passage of cold front. 
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      27  55  40  66  59  68  35  52 /   0   0   0  40  80 100  70  10 
Pensacola   31  54  44  64  61  67  40  52 /   0   0   0  30  60 100  80  10 
Destin      34  54  44  63  60  67  43  53 /   0   0   0  20  30  90  80  10 
Evergreen   26  55  34  62  55  67  37  51 /   0   0   0  10  60 100  80  10 
Waynesboro  24  51  34  59  51  62  31  48 /   0   0   0  30  80 100  60   0 
Camden      25  52  34  59  53  66  34  48 /   0   0   0  10  60 100  80  10 
Crestview   27  56  37  64  55  68  39  53 /   0   0   0  10  40  90  80  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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